Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 020819
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
319 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A SHALLOW TROUGH OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND ZONAL FLOW FARTHER WEST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED MID-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS MOVED OVER TEXAS. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF HAS THE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE ZONAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
A BROAD RIDGE BULGING UP FROM MEXICO AND A BROAD TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL FLOW THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. EXPECTING A DRY...WARM DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH MOVING THROUGH OUR CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE FORECASTING 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE AS
THE FRONT COMES THROUGH AND SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
SPC HAS MOST OF OUR CWA IN A MARGINAL THREAT. QUESTION IS WHETHER
WE WILL BE ABLE TO BREAK A FAIRLY STRONG CAP. THE MOST LIKELY
THREAT FROM STRONG STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15
TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL WAVE BACK TO THE
NORTH SUNDAY AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SOME CHANCE FOR RAIN. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              84  66  81  52  67 /  10  10  30  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  84  66  79  53  66 /  10  10  30  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  66  82  54  67 /  10  10  30  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            85  65  79  49  66 /  -   10  30  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           91  69  87  57  66 /   0  -   10  30  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  67  80  50  67 /  10  10  30  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             87  66  84  54  68 /  -   -   20  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  66  81  54  67 /  10  10  30  30  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  68  80  54  68 /  10  10  30  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  67  83  55  68 /  10  -   30  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  66  83  56  68 /  -   -   20  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05



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