Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 062345
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
645 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO WORK WITH THIS AFTERNOON...SO
RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...WITH ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
NOW IN A TORNADO WATCH THROUGH 9 PM. LARGE HAIL...WINDS GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE.

EXPECT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER TO DIMINISH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE RESPONSIBLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON
...BUT FOCUS OF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY TOMORROW SHOULD BE MORE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NOT ENCOMPASS AS MUCH OF THE LOCAL
AREA AS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENINGS ACTIVITY.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

WILL BE BRIEF DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION...BUT PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SHOWING SWRLY
FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
HAS SHIFTED SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO SRN CALIFORNIA.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ARE DRIVEN
PRIMARILY BY SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER LOW...WHICH BY SUNRISE SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION.

MAIN CONCERN INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL BE AS THAT LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST...EVENTUALLY ONTO THE PLAINS...WITH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF TAKING
THE LOW ON A N/NE PATH THROUGH WRN NEBRASKA ON SUNDAY. INCREASED
LARGER SCALE LIFT...SFC BOUNDARIES AND OTHER PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT
SEVERE WEATHER. SUNDAY...THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS/SFC FRONT LOOKS
TO PUSH E/SE...BUT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE CWA. LOT OF DETAILS YET TO WORK OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THU EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

TONIGHT: VFR. THE TSTM THREAT HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY. WHILE
AN ISOLATED SHWR REMAINS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY EXPECT VARIABLE SCT-
BKN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 5K FT. SE WINDS DIMINISH TO NEAR 10 KTS AND
THEN SHIFT TO SW. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

WED: VFR. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 10K FT THRU MIDDAY...THEN
DECREASING CLOUDS WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING AROUND 4K FT. W WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS BECOME NW. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HALBLAUB


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