Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 262200
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
400 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...VEIL OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
REMAINS INTACT FROM THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFF TO OUR
NORTH...AND UPPER LOW CONTINUES SLOW EASTWARD TREK OFF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES/NEW MEXICO REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECASTED TO SET UP OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL TEXAS BY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS DO SHIFT SYSTEM
EASTWARD THRU THE DAY MONDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO TREK
SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...DO
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO REMAIN INTACT THRU THE AFOREMENTIONED
PERIOD...WITH MOST AREAS OF DRIZZLE GIVING WAY TO AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...COINCIDING WITH MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT OF THIS HIGHEST POPS WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...
TRENDING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ZONES BY 12Z
MONDAY. DESPITE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW THRU THE DAY TODAY...FOG
HAS REMAINED...BUT FLUCTUATING IN INTENSITY. THIS TREND CONTINUES
THRU THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME THUNDER HAS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS IN PAST FEW HRS IN CLEARED OUT AREAS. OUR CWA IS TOO STABLE TO
SUPPORT TRW SO HAVE LEFT OUT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S WITH SOME L40S OVER SOUTHERN ZONES. OVERALL QPF ON THE ORDER
OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS.

GOING INTO MONDAY...UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD THRU THE
DAY...SO HAVE CONTINUED POPS FOR -RW FOR MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN HALF
OF CWA...TRENDING OFF FOR NORTHERN HALF WITH CLEARING SKIES BY
MIDDAY. LOOKING FOR PSUNNY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN ZONES AS PRECIP
ENDS LATE IN AFTERNOON...BUT SKIES SLOW TO CLEAR OUT. WILL CONTINUE
FOG THRU MID-MORNING. BASED ON CLEARING CLOUD TREND FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...WILL HAVE WARMEST HIGH TEMPS OVER NORTHERN ZONES 58-
64F...AND SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. EASTERLY FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE NE THRU THE DAY. OVERALL QPF ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

MONDAY NIGHT...OVERALL MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SPEED UP EXIT OF
PRECIP WITH DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH AXIS OF
SUBSIDENCE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND H5 TROUGH AXIS MOVING OVER THE CWA
CONDITIONS. WHILE I CONSIDERED HOLDING ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION 00-
03Z...WITH CURRENT TREND WITH GUIDANCE DRY I DECIDED TO KEEP THIS
OUT. CLEARING SKIES...LOW TD VALUES...LIGHT WINDS...AND COOL AIR
MASS WILL ALLOW FOR A FROST TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
ACTUALLY WITH SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING MID TO UPPER 20 TDS IN THE WEST A
HARD FREEZE COULDNT BE RULED OUT. CLIMATOLOGICAL LAST HARD FREEZE IS
THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY...SO WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF ON FROST/FREEZE
HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW...THOUGH IT IS GETTING CLOSE.

TUESDAY...SECONDARY H3 JET ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE LIMITED. GFS IS MORE BULLISH ON PRODUCING LIGHT QPF ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND
CURRENT NAM...THOUGH 12Z ECMWF HAS COME IN LINE WITH A WEAK PRECIP
SIGNAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING THE LIMITED MOISTURE IN
PLACE...I DECIDED TO LIMIT MENTION TO SPRINKLES FOR NOW AS
CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE IS NOT HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...H5 RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
(DEPENDING ON MODEL) AS TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. INITIALLY PATTERN WILL FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER AS
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES MAY BEGIN TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS COULD FAVOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
MEAN WIND FAVORING A PROGRESSION OF THIS ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST TO
EAST. TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT
THIS RANGE...ALONG WITH POSITION OF SURFACE FEATURES THAT COULD
SERVE TO AID AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. I ADJUSTED
CONSENSUS 20/30 POPS TO FAVOR AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR NOW TO
REFLECT PERIOD OF PEAK INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

KGLD...IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 15Z
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE TERMINAL. SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE AND FOG EXPECTED. FROM 16Z- 18Z CIGS EXPECTED TO RISE TO
MVFR CATEGORY AS SFC HIGH MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS TO THE AREA. AFTER 18Z VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
ANY CLOUDINESS LIMITED TO UPPER LEVELS ROTATING AROUND A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
EAST NEAR 12KTS THROUGH 12Z THEN BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND GUST 15-20KTS FROM 13Z-22Z. AFTER 22Z WINDS REMAIN NEAR 12KTS
BUT NO GUSTS EXPECTED.

KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 16Z WITH
CIGS RISING TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS
THROUGH 10Z FROM THE EAST NEAR 10KTS THEN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST
NEAR 11KTS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99



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