Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KILN 260024
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
824 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL WORK INTO
THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE FA THIS EVENING.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH JUST LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA. MOST OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL STAY SOUTH OF
THE AREA HOWEVER AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE
30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA DO NOT BELIEVE FROST
WILL BE AN ISSUE AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP OVERNIGHT AND
THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WITH CAA ONLY EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SUNDAY. ALSO WITH CAA AND WINDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE
EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. DUE
TO THIS WENT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES SUNDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER DECIDED TO LEAVE
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

A SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS
HAVE KEPT FROST MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER ESPECIALLY TO EASTERN COUNTIES BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL WITH THE FORECAST NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN AN UPPER
RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN. STRONGEST SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FEW
SHOWERS COULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP. BEYOND THAT THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS
MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK WITH READINGS GETTING ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION PUSHING EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY IN AN AREA OF BETTER INSTABILITY. CIGS
ACROSS OUR AREA OUR RANGING FROM VFR IN THEN NORTH TO IFR ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL THE LOW PUSHES EAST AND SOME LOW LEVEL
DRYING BEGINS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
CIGS TO BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AT THE TAF SITES. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SCT TO POSSIBLY BKN VFR CU DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...BORDERLINE MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.