Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 032043
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
343 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A SLOW WARMING TREND
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AND INTO THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST BUT
CONTINUE TO RIDGE WEST ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. RIDGING ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER OUR CWA THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST MONDAY THEN OPEN UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TUESDAY.
MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SUGGESTS A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA BUT THE TREND IS
DRIER FOR TUESDAY. NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS RUN AROUND 81F. MANY
LOCATIONS HAVE REACHED OR EXCEEDED THAT THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGHS WILL
TOP OUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. NORMAL
MORNING LOWS RUN IN THE UPPER 50S. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MONDAY
MORNING BUT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...WARMER THAN NORMAL
MORNING LOWS CAN BE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. /22/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE
IN AGREEMENT DURING THE PERIOD WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT MID LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN LEADING TO RIDGING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING IN
THE COLUMN WILL ALLOW A CAP TO FORM AROUND 700 MB SIGNIFICANTLY
LIMITING ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE TN VALLEY...RESULTING IN
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES AND NO APPRECIABLE
CHANGE IN THE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE GULF EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. WITH WARMING IN THE COLUMN AND
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN THE DIURNAL RANGE
AS MAX TEMPS CREEP UPWARD. COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
THE DRY AIRMASS WILL EFFICIENTLY RADIATE THE DAYTIME HEATING./26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD.
SCT/BKN DIURNAL CU HAS DEVELOPED WITH SOME LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN...BUT IS QUITE HIGH BASED RUNNING AROUND 6500 FT.
THIS SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. LONE EXCEPTION TO VFR
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE FOG AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY WITH
SOMEWHAT HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED. INCLUDED COUPLE OF
HOURS OF MVFR AT MORE FOG PRONE SITES OF KHBG/KMEI. SFC WINDS
GENERALLY S-SE AT LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH PD. /AEG/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       56  84  59  84 /   3   8   5   5
MERIDIAN      53  84  57  84 /   2   3   4   3
VICKSBURG     55  84  61  85 /   3  13   8   6
HATTIESBURG   56  85  59  85 /   6  13   6   9
NATCHEZ       58  84  62  83 /   4  23  12   9
GREENVILLE    57  84  61  84 /   1   4   6   4
GREENWOOD     55  84  59  85 /   1   3   4   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/26/AEG


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