Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 260738
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
338 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST ABOVE 80 DEGREES AT ALL THE
REPORTING STATIONS IN THE ISLAND CHAIN. KBYX DOPPLER RADAR IS VOID OF
PRECIPITATION ECHOES...BUT HAS HAD A STEADY NORTHBOUND STREAM OF
BIOLOGICAL RETURNS SINCE THE SUN SET YESTERDAY.

A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT DEEP RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH FLORIDA/FLORIDA KEYS IN THE NEAR TERM.
DECIDED TO TRIM OUR GRIDDED POP BACK FOR TODAY...AS THE LATEST
GRAPHICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES A PERIOD OF DRYING SUBSIDENCE AND
INHIBITED PROFILE. THIS BASICALLY PULLS THE MENTION OF RAIN FOR
TODAY. ALSO TRIMMED OUR POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO JUST 10
PERCENT FOR TONIGHT...AND THAT MAY EVEN TURN OUT TO BE GENEROUS.
HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID IN THE LOWEST LAYERS...SO
SENSIBLE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS
IN THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DIVING TROUGH...AND THEN SLOWLY BUT
STEADILY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE
FOLLOWING TWO DAYS. A TRAILING FRONT CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THURSDAY AS THIS LOW ACCELERATES
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS NOW APPEAR TO
BE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO...HAVE
RAISED OUR PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION BY ANOTHER 10
PERCENT FOR THOSE TWO PERIODS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GFS
TABULAR MOS NUMBERS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECLINE THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WORK WEEK AS DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS SLIDE INTO
OUR AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT GRIDDED WEATHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LATER PERIODS OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE BREEZE WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN AXIS OF HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE ALIGNS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE KEYS. SOME VARIABILITY OF THE WIND DIRECTION RETURNS
WITH THE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...WELL AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATING
SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST/WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND EVENTUALLY PULLS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THURSDAY. NO
ADVISORY OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED FOR ANY
PERIOD OF THE COMING FORECAST THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AT THE
EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS
WILL VEER THROUGH THE DAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FLOW FROM THE WEST
LATER THIS EVENING. A CUMULUS CLOUD LINE BASED AT 020 WILL ATTEMPT
TO FORM IN THE LEE SIDE OF THE LOWER KEYS THIS AFTERNOON WITH NEAR
ZERO RAIN CHANCES FOR BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.CLIMATE...IN 1991...IT WAS A WARM DAY IN KEY WEST. THE DAILY RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 90F AND THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF
80F WERE RECORDED. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST HAVE BEEN KEPT
SINCE 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  86  81  88  80 / -  10 20 30
MARATHON  93  81  90  79 / -  10 20 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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