Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 270435
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1135 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015


.AVIATION...OCCLUDED LOW OVER WEST TEXAS WITH A TRIPLE POINT LOW
OVER NORTH TEXAS AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AEX TERMINAL
AREA. WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE A SQUALL LINE ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBAND. STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WITH HAIL EXPECTED TO MOVE
RAPIDLY THROUGH BEGINNING MID-MONDAY MORNING PER LATEST HRRR
IMAGERY. EXPECTING LIFR WITH THE DISRUPTIVE TSTMS...GUSTS TO 40
KNOTS POSSIBLE.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING FORECAST SHAPING UP TONIGHT. REGIONAL 88DS SHOW A
CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER N-CNTL/NERN
TX IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT. MEANWHILE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES AN MCS DEVELOPING OVER CNTL TX ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER DRYLINE CONVECTION OVER WRN TX. SHORT RANGE
HIGH RES GUIDANCE SHOWS ALL THIS MESS CONGEALING INTO A SINGLE
CONVECTIVE FEATURE PUSHING SEWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT...LIKELY AFTER 09Z...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES INTO
AN AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THUS
POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE WRN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
LATE TONIGHT...WITH SEVERE WORDING ADDED WEST OF THE SABINE.

ELSEWHERE TWEAKS WERE MINOR...MAINLY SKY COVER INCREASED QUITE A
BIT BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TEMPS RAISED SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT AS WELL AS BASED ON LATEST OBS. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

AVIATION...A STORM SYSTEM OVER WEST TEXAS WITH A WARM OCCLUSION,
DRY LINE, AN EXTENSIVE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF AN ENCROACHING COLD
FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALL WITH HIGH CAPES
WILL BE CAUSING DISRUPTIVE SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE TERMINALS FROM
MID- MORNING MONDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS BEGIN LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHES INTO THE AEX AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR AND
THEN LIFR FOR THE BPT AND LCH TERMINALS.

POSSIBLE HAIL PRODUCING SEVERE TSTMS WITH HEAVY RAIN BY MID-
MORNING MONDAY WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF WHILE A STRONG
SUPPORTING UPPER LOW HANGS BACK AROUND THE PANHANDLE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TO IFR TO MVFR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHILE THE FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OFF THE COAST.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES SHARP TROUGH OUT WEST IN THE
PROCESS OF CUTTING OFF. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN RESPONSE
ACROSS TEXAS AS WELL. STRONG JET SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF HAS KEPT CLOUDS A LITTLE MORE THICK THAN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW SPRINKLES INLAND AND
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE. THIS IN TURN HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM ACHIEVING PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS.

COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS OVER THE STABLE SURFACE
LAYER. SHEAR PARAMETERS WOULD ALSO INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERE STORM AS WELL. AT THE SAME TIME...ACTIVITY OVER TEXAS IS
FORECAST TO CONGEAL INTO A ROBUST CLUSTER OF STORMS AND MARCH
EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS GREAT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THE COMPLEX. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
KINEMATICS...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN ON MONDAY...NOT REAL SURE HOW FAR
NORTH TO TAKE THE HEAVY RAIN WITH GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES ON HOW IT
WILL EVOLVE. STILL SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY. AS A RESULT WILL ISSUE AN FFA FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED
6. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
AREA...BUT THESE MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED AS WE SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE
OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THIS ALSO HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINS AS WELL. THEN QUESTION
BECOMES WILL DRY SLOT ON TUESDAY SHUT THINGS DOWN EARLY OR WILL
THERE BE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AGAIN. GUIDANCE IS
MIXED...BUT DEFINITELY THINK THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER.

AFTER TUESDAY NICE COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  74  59  65 /  40  70  70  40
LCH  73  80  65  71 /  30  80  60  20
LFT  72  79  67  73 /  20  70  60  40
BPT  74  81  65  72 /  50  80  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR LAZ030>033-041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR TXZ215-216-261-262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11


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