Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 041247
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
747 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH UP TO 30 KNOTS IN THE LOWEST
8000 FEET HAVE TRANSPORTED MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIR IS ABOVE THIS LEVEL. THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE OF 1.13 INCHES IS CLOSE TO THE TYPICAL EARLY MAY
VALUE. A 13 CELSIUS TEMPERATURE INVERSION EXISTS FROM THE SURFACE
TO 600 FEET THAT SHOULD MIX OUT BY MIDDAY. WINDS ARE UNDER 20
KNOTS UNTIL 40000 FEET WITH A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 45 KNOTS AT 49000
FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING THAT
LASTED 98 MINUTES AND ASCENDED TO A HEIGHT OF 20.3 MILES ABOVE
THE GROUND BEFORE BURSTING WEST OF WAVELAND 20 MILES DOWNRANGE
FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NORTH SOUTH AXIS OF AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SEVERAL SH/TS ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALREADY ONGOING IN SE LA AND COASTAL MISS
THIS MORNING. BUMPED NUMBERS JUST A TAD FOR THIS EXTRA FOCUS.
AFTER TODAY...DAYTIME HEATING AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY.

LONG TERM...
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA LOOKS TO BE A STALLING FRONT BY
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE FCST. PRESISTENT
SE WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST. IN
FACT STRONG ONSHORE WINDS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING WITH NEAR OR AT SCY
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KTS CAN BE ANTICIPATED OVER ALL OF THE OPEN WATERS WITH
FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS. THIS ALONG WITH THE LARGE FETCH ACROSS THE
GULF SHOULD HAVE LITTLE PROBLEM LEADING TO SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE
IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD START TO BACK DOWN AROUND
THE MIDDLE/SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LIGHTENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE
NERN GULF. SCY FOR THE OUTER WATERS WILL GO INTO EFFECT WITH THIS
PACKAGE AND THEN GO INTO EFFECT AT 18Z FOR THE INNER WATERS. /CAB/

AVIATION...OVERALL ALL OR MOST TERMINALS WILL REMAIN IN VFR STATUS.
LGT SHRA ACTIVITY THIS MORNING HAS TRIED TO PUSH INLAND WITH ONLY
GPT AND BIX BEING IMPACTED SO FAR. CANT RULE OUT SOME EARLY MORNING
FOG AT THE USUAL PROBLEM SITES BUT NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF IMPACTS. TODAY CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW BUT AN ISLTD
STORM OR TWO COULD LEAD TO TEMPO MVFR OR IFR STATUS THIS AFTN. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NO.
ACTIVITIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  79  60  81  60 /  30  10  10  10
BTR  81  63  81  62 /  30  10  10   0
ASD  81  63  80  63 /  20  10  10   0
MSY  80  67  80  67 /  30  10  10  10
GPT  79  65  79  65 /  30  10  10   0
PQL  80  60  80  62 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
     TUESDAY FOR GMZ550-552-555-557.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ570-572-575-
     577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
     TUESDAY FOR GMZ552-555-557.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ572-575-577.

&&

$$


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