Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 261931
AFDMLB

DDHHMM 261928
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY WEST TO
EAST IN THE DEEP FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW. SHALLOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE
SUGGESTS SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS AND SHOWERS THROUGH LATE EVENING
THEN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOWS IN THE LOW
AND MID 70S.

MON-MON NIGHT...TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ARE INDICATING VERY DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE FIELD...THROUGH 200MB...WHICH WOULD INDICATE BETTER
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. WEAK BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

TUE-WED...PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD A GULF OF MEXICO LOW MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST STREAMS NORTHEAST OVER FLORIDA. WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA PLACES THE STATE IN THE WARM SECTION TUE AND
WED. THE COMBINATION OF BETTER MOISTURE AND STRONGER MID LEVEL
IMPULSES MOVING OVERHEAD RESULTS IN MUCH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AROUND
70 PERCENT WITH CHANCE OF STORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MID 80S.

THU-SAT...THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO THU (MAINLY EARLY) AS A
WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT.
WINDS VEER ONSHORE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF
FL ELONGATES EWD. COULD SEE A SMALL COASTAL SHOWERS THREAT DEVELOP
BUT RATHER EARLY TO GAUGE THE STRENGTH OF EASTERLIES THIS FAR OUT.

.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILING. TEMPO MVFR IN VC OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAINLY KVRB NORTH THIS EVENING.

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVED
SOUTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. BRIEF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION TONIGHT THEN DROPPING TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS AS THE PARENT LOW
OFF NEW ENGLAND LIFTS FURTHER AWAY AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS MORE.

MON-TUE...FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND THE
WEAKENING FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. WINDS 10
TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

WED-FRI...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WED AND THU IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE FRI
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  82  69  79 /  20  20  30  70
MCO  73  85  69  83 /  30  40  30  70
MLB  72  83  71  80 /  40  20  30  70
VRB  73  85  71  81 /  30  20  40  70
LEE  72  85  70  82 /  30  50  30  70
SFB  72  85  69  81 /  30  40  30  70
ORL  73  85  70  82 /  30  40  30  70
FPR  73  86  69  82 /  20  20  40  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...SHARP
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER



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