Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 032038
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
338 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE SE CONUS AND
CENTRAL GULF STATES WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY WEST THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.
ALOFT UPPER RIDGE THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES TODAY
WILL DRIFT FURTHER EASTWARD THROUGH MON AFTERNOON WITH RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING JUST EAST OF THE CWFA LATE IN THE DAY. WITH THIS PATTERN
EXPECT A WEAK RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A BETTER RETURN FLOW DURING THE DAY ON MON. FOR TONIGHT
WITH UPPER RIDGE GENERALLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF REGION AND CWFA
GIVING WAY TO SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINED WITH THE WEAK
MOISTURE RETURN MOSTLY NEAR THE SURFACE SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG MAINLY INLAND FROM THE COAST. TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPS SHOULD
BE WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS THOUGH RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
BELOW THE NORM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...MID 50S INLAND AND UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 NEAR THE COAST. FOR MON EXPECT A FEW BETTER CLOUDS
THAN TODAY AS BETTER MOISTURE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LAYERS IS
TAPPED FROM THE GULF. JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA MOST OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
MOST OF LOWER MS AND LA STRETCHING INTO SOME WESTERN SECTIONS OF CWFA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR OR OFF THE AL COAST IN
THE MORNING SHIFTING NW OVER INLAND AREAS OF SE MS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH LIMITED FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS ANY PRECIP THAT
DOES FORM WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. MON`S HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE
LOWER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING NORTH
ALONG THE MISS RIVER VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS REMAINS
PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO. NOT SO STATUS QUO IS SOME UPPER ENERGY
SWIRLING AROUND OVER THE CARIBBEAN/EASTERN GULF OF MEX BEGINNING TO
ORGANIZE...WITH A SURFACE CIRCULATION OBSERVED ORGANIZING OFF THE FL
ATLANTIC COASTLINE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SURFACE
CIRCULATION BEGINS TO SHIFT THE SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

FOR THE FORECAST...TEMPS REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL. THE POSITIONING OF
THE SURFACE RIDGE KEEPS MOST OF THE FA UNDER A GENERAL EASTERLY
FLOW...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING COASTAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. THESE AREAS SHOULD SEE ENOUGH OF A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE WINDS...ALONG WITH A GULF BREEZE MOVING INLAND...FOR MOISTURE
LEVELS TO INCREASE. OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED...WITH
THESE AREAS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE.

FOR THE FORECAST...TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
CONTINUE...WITH NARY A RAINDROP IN SIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY ON)...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SYSTEM
ORGANIZES OFF THE FL ATLANTIC COAST. WITH THIS SYSTEM CAUGHT IN AN
UPPER RIDGE...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING IT MEANDERING AROUND ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THE GFS DOES MEANDER IT WESTWARD A BIT...BRINGING
A MORE NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. THE ECMWF MEANDERS IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST A BIT...WEAKENING THE MORE ORGANIZED
EASTERLY FLOW. WITH THE ADDED DOWNWARD MOTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
SEABOARD SYSTEM ADDING INTO THAT FROM THE UPPER RIDGE...TEMPS
MODERATE UPWARD EVEN MORE. UPPER 80S DURING THE DAY...LOW TO MID 60S
AT NIGHT EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE SYSTEM OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST WEAKENING ECMWF) OR OPENING AND BEGINNING TO MOVE
OFF(GFS). A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HELPING TO WEAKEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CONUS. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL...THOUGH. AGAIN...NARY A RAINDROP
IN SIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
03.18Z TAF ISSUANCE... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
04.06Z...FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT
04.13Z...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH 04.18Z. EXPECT SCT TO
BROKEN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...FOLLOWED BY LOW CEILINGS AND
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCT TO BKN
LOW TO MID CLOUDS LATE MON MORNING THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY SOUTH
AND WEST OF KMOB AND KBFM LATE MON MORNING THRU MON AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING
SHIFTING EAST AT 5 TO 8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON...THEN
SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INCREASING TO 13 TO 15 KNOTS LATE MON MORNING
THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND LOWER PART OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW THROUGH
MIDWEEK. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF EACH NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT...THEN MOST OTHER OPEN AREAS
INCLUDING SOME INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED MOSTLY FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS LATE
MON THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
32/EE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      60  82  59  83  60 /  05  10  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   65  81  63  81  65 /  05  10  05  05  05
DESTIN      65  82  65  81  66 /  05  10  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   54  84  57  85  57 /  05  05  05  00  05
WAYNESBORO  55  84  57  84  59 /  05  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      54  84  58  85  57 /  05  05  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   53  86  57  85  58 /  05  10  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/16



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