Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 070002
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
702 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

SEVERE STORMS HAVE FIRED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS
EASTWARD FROM A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAD 30 TO 60 METER HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...COUPLED WITH A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE
WITH 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES OF PW...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE STORMS
EXPAND EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND EVENTUALLY IN WESTERN IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. A TORNADO WATCH WAS
ISSUED FOR A SMALL PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA FOR ACTIVITY THAT MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND
ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE EVENING FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST FROM THE EXISTING WATCH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA. MODEL QPFS ARE ALSO QUITE HEALTHY ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE AREA WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES FORECAST. WPC IS ALSO CONCERNED
WITH POSSIBLE TRAINING OF STORMS LATER IN THE EVENING WHICH COULD
ENHANCE RAINFALL TOTALS. FOR NOW WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES UNLESS AMOUNTS BECOME
EXCESSIVE.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS COULD OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING
AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION. THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE
A SEVERAL HOUR DRY PERIOD LATER THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT PUSH IN TO THE MID 70S...AND COULD DEVELOP STORMS AGAIN BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE. STORMS THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY
EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG/SOUTH OF I80. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN WITH THOSE STORMS AS WELL SINCE
RAINFALL WILL BE FALLING ALONG AND AREA THAT GETS A CONSIDERABLE
SOAKING TONIGHT.

THE FRONT THEN PUSHES SOUTH INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI FOR FRIDAY
BUT THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER
REGION THAT COULD EVEN LINGER INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER STRONG
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE FRONT
RANGE...WHICH INDUCES LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND ANOTHER WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. RAIN LINGERS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AT LEAST. SUNDAY AFTERNOON IS PROBLEMATIC. WE WILL LIKELY
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND UNCERTAIN IF WE
WILL CONVECT ALONG IT...OR PERHAPS AHEAD OF IT EAST OF OUR AREA.
THEN DEFORMATION/WRAP AROUND PRECIP AFFECTS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING MVFR CONDITIONS/WIDESPREAD PCPN ACTIVITY
LIFTING ACROSS ERN NEB IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSING THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS. EXPECT TSRA TO PREVAIL AT
ALL TAF SITES THRU THIS EVENING WITH SHRA THEN AFT MIDNIGHT TILL
ABOUT 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST MODELS INDICATE IFR CIGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT KOMA/KLNK BTWN 12Z-14Z THURSDAY MORNING...THEN LOW
END VFR CIGS THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE


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