Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 011125
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
625 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE PAC NW REGION REMAINS FEATURE OF INTEREST
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT SFC OBS ALREADY SHOWING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER
THE NRN PLAINS ALONG WITH GULF MOISTURE...60 DEW POINTS...PUSHING UP
THRU TX INTO OK.

LATEST RAP13 IS PLACING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE NRN CWA AROUND 21Z WITH STOUT LLVL THETA-E ADV RACING UP
AHEAD OF THE BNDRY. AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING...DESTABILIZATION WILL
QUICKLY ALLOW CONVECTION TO FIRE AND INTENSIFY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH. WITH KI AROUND 40/PW VALUES 1.25"...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
MOISTURE RICH AND MAKE IT QUITE PROBABLE SEVERAL LOCATIONS...MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80 WILL SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER STORMS PASSING THRU. IN ADDITION...RAP13 IS
SUGGESTING THAT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE ON THE LOW END FOR PRODUCING
SEVERE STORMS AND SUSPECT THE HAIL THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED IN
NATURE.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...GFS/NAM/ECM ALL POINT TO THE SRN CWA
FOR POSSIBLE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG 300K UPGLIDE/LOW COND PRES
DEF. SITUATION SEEMS WORTHY ENOUGH TO AT LEAST GO WITH LOW END
POPS.

AS FOR TEMPS...A QUITE NOTICEABLE DOWNWARD TREND WILL BE REALIZED
WITH HIGHS GOING FROM THE LOW/MID 80S TODAY TO THE LOW 50S ON
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

GFS AND ECM IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THE PRIMARY LARGE SCALE FEATURE
WILL BE AN AMPLIFIED TROF FORMING OVER THE WRN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AT LEAST THRU NEXT SUNDAY. GFS/ECM/CMC ALL SHOW
IMPRESSIVE LLVL MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH PCPN
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH EWD ADVANCING DRY LINE. FCST POP FCST LOOKS
REASONABLE FOR NOW SO NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

AS FOR TEMPS...MEX AND ECMMOS METEOGRAMS ARE SHOWING CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MEX PUSHING HIGHS AT KOMA INTO THE M60S WHILE
ECMMOS IS MUCH COOLER WITH LOW/MID 50S. PREFER TO GO WITH WARMER MEX
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 35KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT KOFK AROUND
23Z...THEN KOMA/KLNK NEAR 02Z. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BRING BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES...BUT GENERALLY VFR CIGS
AND AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS ARE FORECAST OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGEST
STORMS. EXPECT ABOUT A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF STORMS AT KOFK...WITH
ABOUT AN 8 HOUR PERIOD OF POTENTIAL RAIN/THUNDER AT KOMA/KLNK.
NORTH WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH VFR CIGS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DERGAN



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