Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 051546 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1046 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E AND NE IN THE AREA... MAYBE
REACHING PARTS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTN. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS/WX TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS AND STRETCH HIGHER CHANCE AND
LIKELY POPS JUST A LITTLE FURTHER EAST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY PUT/INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE
RAIN WILL SLOW THE WARM UP ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA... ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

AVIATION...05/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ACTIVE AVIATION FORECAST PERIOD. RA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD
INTO WRN OK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. RA AND TSRA WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTN AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO
THE EVENING. TRIED TO KEEP TAFS SIMPLE... WITH PREVAILING RA OR
TSRA WHEN NECESSARY. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR VIS THROUGH THE DAY. AS
CLOUD COVER INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVENING... MVFR
CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY DROP TO IFR AT SOME SITES OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE S/SE THROUGH THE PERIOD... GUSTY THROUGH
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON... BETWEEN 20 TO 25KTS.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS FOCUSED ON TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HOWEVER... THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE NEAR DAILY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY... CONVECTION ACROSS WEST TEXAS... ALONG AND EAST OF THE
LLANO ESTACADO... CONTINUES... WITH THE SFC LOW SLOWLY EVOLVING
ACROSS THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS. THROUGH MIDNIGHT... NEARLY 4 TO 5
INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS. EXPECT THE
SFC LOW TO SLOWLY LIFT N/NE ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS... WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO MOVE NWRD ACROSS THE W TX AND THE
PANHANDLES INTO WRN N TX AND FAR WRN OK THROUGH SUNRISE. MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT... ALTHOUGH THE HRRR MIGHT BE A TAD
BULLISH WITH THE EWRD EXTENT OF PRECIP INTO OK THROUGH MID MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS WRN OK
AND WRN N TX THROUGH THE AFTN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE AN
ISSUE LATER THIS MORNING/THIS AFTN AS BANDING MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
ERN PANHANDLES/WRN OK... WHERE THE BETTER ISENTROPIC RESPONSE MAY
SET UP ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE H500 LOW. WITH GOOD MID-LEVEL
ASCENT AND A NARROW BAND OF MUCAPE VALUES OF 600 TO 900 J/KG...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL GREATER
THAN 1 INCH THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
QPF... SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW TODAY UNFOLDS.

AS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY... THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATE
THIS AFTN/EVENING ACROSS FAR W/SWRN OK AND WRN N TX. OF COURSE...
ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS THIS
MORNING AND AFTN. THERE IS SOME CONCERN CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS... LIMITING HEATING/INSTABILITY DEVELOPMENT.
FORCING WILL BE AVAILABLE FROM A WEAK DRYLINE AND BROAD SCALE
ASCENT... AS WELL AS ANY LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRIMARY QUESTION THIS
AFTN... THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF SHEAR AVAILABLE... 40 TO 55KTS
0-6KM AND IF WE CAN RECOVER... A WINDOW AROUND 21-03Z FOR SOME 1000-
1400 J/KG SKINNY CAPE PROFILES. MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE
ELEVATED... AND GIVEN BUFR PROFILES... LARGE HAIL... UP TO GOLF
BALLS... AND SEVERE WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS... WITH THE
TORNADO HAZARD LOW.

FOR WEDNESDAY... CLUSTERS OR A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
BE ONGOING AND LIFTING EWRD ACROSS CENTRAL OK THROUGH SUNRISE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND EXIT EWRD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
H500 SHORT WAVE FINALLY EJECTS NWRD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. ONCE
AGAIN... HOW THIS ACTIVITY EVOLVES THROUGH THE MORNING WILL PLAY THE
LEAD ROLE IN OUR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WED AFTN/EVENING. AT THE
MOMENT... IF WE CAN GET CLEARING ACROSS WRN OK IN THE VICINITY OF
THE DRYLINE... MODEST MLCAPE VALUES CAN BE ANTICIPATED... 1000-1500
J/KG. THIS PAIRED WITH GOOD SHEAR ONCE AGAIN... STORMS ON THE
DRYLINE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP RAPIDLY AND BE GOOD HAIL PRODUCERS... UP
TO TENNIS BALL SIZED... AS WELL AS PRODUCING POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. AS FOR TORNADOES... CHANCES LOOK BETTER IN KS... WHERE
SHEAR/LL WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE MORE FAVORABLE POSITION OF
THE SFC LOW OVER ERN CO/WRN KS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OK AND NRN TX
STORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE DRYLINE... BECOMING ELEVATED QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT... WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING THROUGH THU MORNING.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY... PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE...
ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT INTO FRI... AS A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS/LINGERS NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER... EXTENDING FROM THE PANHANDLE
INTO ERN KS. H500 FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY STATIC AS THE SRN PLAINS
REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE WEST AND A
SHARP POSITIVE RIDGE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH THIS FLOW
REGIME AND THE LINGERING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY... COUPLED WITH
CONTINUOUS MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF... PERSISTENT AND
POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LIKELY... ESPECIALLY FRI INTO SAT AM.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE H500
TROUGH FINALLY LIFTS E/NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WITH THIS...
THE DRY LINE WILL MAKE ANOTHER PUSH ON SATURDAY... WITH STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. DETAILS REMAIN HAZY GIVEN WHATS
POSSIBLE TO TRANSPIRE BETWEEN NOW AN THEN. AS WITH TODAY AND WED...
THUNDERSTORMS SAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS
FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH MON INTO TUES.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  63  78  65 /  60  70  40  50
HOBART OK         67  63  80  63 /  80  80  40  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  65  82  66 /  90  70  30  50
GAGE OK           67  60  82  62 /  70  80  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     78  65  78  66 /  30  80  50  40
DURANT OK         78  65  78  66 /  50  70  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/03


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