Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 050855
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
255 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRI NOON. UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A SHOWERY AND...AS THEY SAY IN
BRITAIN...THUNDERY NEXT THREE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BORDER ON RIDICULOUSLY LARGE AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH MORE THAN ONE INCH ON THU NIGHT FOR THE WOOD
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE GFS IS PREDICTING UNDER A
TENTH...SO THERE IS AN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE DIFFERENCE. THE INCOMING
TROUGH FROM THE WEST HAS MORE STABLE AIR AND THE SHOWERS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE...WITH ONLY THE EXTREME NORTHERN END OF THE
FORECAST AREA LOSING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORM
RISK BY THU...AND THAT REQUIRES BELIEVING THE GFS. BUT EVEN THE
GFS HAS STRONG PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...WITH THU BEING THE WETTEST
TIME WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FROM BLACKFOOT THROUGH IDAHO
FALLS AND INTO THE TETON VALLEY...THENCE TO ISLAND PARK AND WEST
YELLOWSTONE. HAVE CONTINUED THE HIGH POPS...AND DRIED OUT A LITTLE
MORE FOR WED PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN GLUT OF MOISTURE.

COULD GET SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...BUT DO NOT SEE A NEED FOR ANY KIND OF
ADVISORY.

HOWEVER...COMMUNICATIONS CIRCUITS WITH THE MAIN HUB AT NCEP MAY
PRECLUDE THIS FORECAST AND ITS CHANGES FROM COMING OUT AT THE
NORMAL TIME. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE WILL ISSUE BACK-UP
PRODUCTS WHEN TIME PERMITS...IF IT IS NECESSARY.

MESSICK

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE LATEST
GFS/ECMWF MODEL CYCLE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DIGGING SE INTO SRN NEVADA FRIDAY AND THEN EAST THROUGH THE 4-
CORNERS REGION SATURDAY. HAVE GENERALLY MAINTAINED THE ELEVATED
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DWINDLING CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS
BEGIN TO STRUGGLE NEXT WEEK SHOWING GREATER MODEL SPREAD IN THE
TRACK OF THE NEXT INCOMING PAC STORM SYSTEM. HAVE MAINTAINED A
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK AWAITING BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HUSTON

&&

.AVIATION...A DRIER SW FLOW WAS SPREADING ACROSS SRN IDAHO EARLY
THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WAS
ROTATING INTO SW BRITISH COLUMBIA. AFTERNOON HEATING COUPLED WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE SE HIGHLANDS AND INCREASING
DYNAMICAL FORCING IN THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE. INCREASING WSW WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON
AS AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. HUSTON
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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