Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 070714
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
514 PM CHST THU MAY 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWS ONLY VERY ISOLATED
TRADE-WIND SHOWERS FROM EAST WINDS CONVERGING ON THE
WEST SIDE OF GUAM. VISIBLE AND IR IMAGERY SHOW A VERY-
WEAK DISTURBANCE CONTAINING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST
OF THE MARIANAS NEAR 150E.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRADE-WIND REGIME WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MARIANAS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AFTER THAT...ALL WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W. THE GFS
NOW BRINGS 07W SOUTHEAST OF GUAM NEAR 9N151E EARLY ON
TUESDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS 07W SOUTHEAST OF GUAM NEAR
10N154E MONDAY NIGHT. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
TYPHOON NOUL (06W) HAS INTENSIFIED TO A CATEGORY 2 STORM AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AWAY FROM YAP AND PALAU
TOWARD THE PHILIPPINES. THIS GENERAL TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD IN
POHNPEI STATE. AT 1 PM...07W WAS LOCATED NEAR 3.8 NORTH 159.9 EAST.
IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN NORTHEAST...THEN NORTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. 07W IS ALSO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. LATEST FORECAST TRACKS
SHOW THE SYSTEM REMAINING IN POHNPEI STATE AS IT TURNS TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST...BUT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK ARE LIKELY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PEOPLE IN KOSRAE STATE SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO
ANY CHANGES THAT COULD BRING 07W CLOSER TO KOSRAE. WATCHES ARE
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR MOKIL...PINGELAP AND SAPWUAFIK. WATCHES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER FOR POHNPEI AND PAKIN. ADDITIONAL LOCATIONS
THAT COULD BE THREATENED LATER INCLUDE FANANU IN CHUUK STATE AND THE
MARIANAS. ARRIVAL TIME TO THE MARIANAS COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY. EVERYONE FROM KOSRAE TO THE MARIANAS SHOULD
MONITOR LOCAL MEDIA...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECASTS FOR UPDATES AND INSTRUCTIONS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM THE
NEXT FEW DAYS FOR CHUUK ACROSS POHNPEI TO KOSRAE. A SURF ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED FOR KOSRAE AND THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS
UPDATED AT 11 AM. TROPICAL ADVISORIES ARE BEING ISSUED FOR TD
07W. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON TD 07W PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL
DISCUSSION ABOVE.

A DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A TROUGHING PATTERN PERSISTS JUST
SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF MAJURO. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY MOVING INTO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE RMI THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WET WHILE A PATTERN OF TRADE-WIND
CONVERGENCE REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE CHUUK DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED WITH EASTERN MICRONESIA BECAUSE OF
SIMILAR SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS RELATED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 07W.

YAP AND KOROR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST FACING
REEFS UNTIL THE LARGER SWELL FROM TYPHOON NOUL SUBSIDES. TY NOUL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AWAY FROM YAP.
IMPROVING WEATHER AND GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
YAP AND KOROR THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

DEVITA/SIMPSON/KLEESCHULTE



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