Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 032357
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
743 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY...ALLOWING A FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. FRONT THEN LIFTS BACK NORTH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
745 PM UPDATE...

WENT A BIT LOWER FOR LOWS TONIGHT GIVEN RECENT WARM BIAS IN SOME
OF THE MOS GUIDANCE. VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR
A RAPID FALL IN TEMPS THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF URBAN CENTERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS AND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A FEW CLOUDS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA.
LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

ANY DIURNAL CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHOULD PASS BY TO OUR NORTH...LEAVE CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

THE HIGH SHOULD DRIFT SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...ALLOWING A FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SEE CLOUDS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT SPREADING INTO THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

LATEST MET/MAV GUIDANCE IS CLOSE TO PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED LOWS
TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON MONDAY...SO ONLY MADE SOME TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
HAS UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD...WHICH
WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AN APPROACHING FRONT DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF OUR AREA ON TUESDAY...AND DISSIPATING THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. WHILE BEST UPPER SUPPORT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE...MODELS DO
INDICATE AN ALMOST SUMMER LIKE DIRTY UPPER RIDGE WITH ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE SOME CHANCE OF CONVECTION. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE MAINLY NORTH WITH THE FRONT TUESDAY...AND IN THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION BECOMING UNDER THE
DIRTY UPPER RIDGE BECOMING MORE OF A FACTOR. THE LEAST CHANCE WILL
BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND AND SOUTHERN LOWLANDS. IN ANY CASE...THERE
IS NO REAL GOOD FOCUS TO GO MORE THAN WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION IN AREAS AFOREMENTIONED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS.  A FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.  THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN PUSH NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST INYO CANADA.  THIS WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE
 SHOULD BE IN CONTROL.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SOME HIGHER BASED CU TOMORROW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS IN BR COULD
DEVELOP IN FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 05/04/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...JSH/30
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JSH/30











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