Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 180446
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1146 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions persists across West Central Texas terminals late
this evening, despite models suggesting that low clouds should
already have developed. Air mass remains disrupted by the storms
that pushed across the area earlier this afternoon. May take a few
more hours, but think the low clouds will eventually fill in, but
perhaps wont be as persistent or as widespread as the models would
indicate. Dryline pushes into the area on Saturday, so ceilings
should improve as southerly and then southwesterly winds prevail.
There is another chance for afternoon and evening storms, but no
confidence in exactly where at this point. Will let later
forecasts define this threat.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015/

UPDATE...
Quick update to remove Severe Thunderstorm Watch wording.

DISCUSSION...
Dryline had moved west of the CWA. Area of residual showers and
isolated thunderstorms is moving east through the central Big
Country and northwestern Concho Valley at this time. Another area
of showers is moving east out of the Northwest Hill Country. Have
changed weather grids after midnight leaving only a slight chance
of thunderstorms over the area with reduced QPF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Convective activity has ended over most of the West Central
Texas. A band of showers will approach KABI over the next several
hours and have included TEMPO through 02Z for -TSRA at the
terminal. Convective activity will be limited over the next 24
hours over all of West Central Texas and have not included
mention in the TAFS at any terminals. Winds will remain light and
VFR conditions will predominate.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

The threat of severe thunderstorms will continue across most of
West Central Texas this evening. Severe Thunderstorm Watch number
67 continues until 7 PM this evening. Large hail, damaging winds,
deadly lightning, and possibly a tornado will remain the primary
hazards. However, flash flooding, as the result of very heavy
rainfall, is possible. Otherwise, showers and thunderstorms are
possible across all of West Central Texas tonight and tomorrow, as
the upper low, centered over extreme northwestern New Mexico this
afternoon, moves slowly toward the northeast.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)

The long term forecast remains essentially unchanged. Models have
been very consistent with slowly moving the center of the upper
low northeastward across Colorado and into the central Plains. As
it does, the rain chances will end. Another cold front still looks
likely for Sunday. Then, a couple dry days, before rain chances
return to the forecast for Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  58  81  54  78  49 /  30  20  20   5   5
San Angelo  57  83  54  81  51 /  30  20  10   5   5
Junction  58  81  56  85  53 /  40  30  20   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07





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