Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 192043
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

VALID 211200Z - 271200Z

A STACKED LOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING SEWD INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
D6/FRI. GENERALLY COOL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT LOW IN THE REGION UNDER ITS
INFLUENCE -- FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY AND INTO THE NE.

FARTHER W...REX BLOCK IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD --
D3/TUE -- WILL BREAK DOWN ON D4/WED AS A COMPACT UPPER LOW MOVES SWD
ALONG THE W COAST. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS LOW WILL THEN
DEEPEN OFF THE NRN COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON D5/THU BEFORE
EJECTING OUT OVER THE SOUTHWEST/NRN MEXICO ON D6/FRI AND INTO THE
SRN PLAINS ON D7/SAT. HOWEVER...COMPLEXITY OF THIS SCENARIO RESULTS
IN LOW PREDICTABILITY ON THE UPPER LOWS STRENGTH AS THE SYSTEM
EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS AS WELL AS WHEN IT ACTUALLY OCCURS.

...SOUTHWEST/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SE AZ AND SW NM
REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A 40 PERCENT AREA FOR D3/TUE. ENOUGH
POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS ON D4/WED ACROSS THE SAME AREA AND EWD INTO
THE SW TX PANHANDLE/TX SOUTH PLAINS TO DELINEATE ANOTHER 40 PERCENT
AREA.

AFTER D5/THU...THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS SWLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
AND LEE CYCLOGENESIS DEEPENS. WHILE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW
PREDICTABILITY IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL PRECIP AND/OR CLOUD COVER
RESULT IN UNCERTAINTY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...CONFIDENCE IN
CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS HIGH ENOUGH TO DELINEATE 40 PERCENT AREAS ON
BOTH D5/THU AND D6/FRI. REFINEMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO THESE
AREAS IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS AS LOCATIONS OF ANTECEDENT PRECIP
AND/OR ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

..MOSIER.. 04/19/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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