Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 161132
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR SGL 46 BLACK OAK...PA GAME COMM.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
732 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON APRIL 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO LOWER DEWPOINTS AND MINIMUM RH VALUES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL DATA.

FIRE DANGER REMAINS ELEVATED TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA WITH
BORDERLINE MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS. 20FT WINDS/GUSTS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS. FCST RH VALUES MAY BE TO
HIGH AS THE MODELS COULD BE TOO BULLISH ON INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE AREA WILL PICK UP SOME
LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 INCH
OR LESS. THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND NOW LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT POSSIBLE FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
MIN HUMIDITY........28 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4300-5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 17 TO 18
                    MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............54  54  54  53  53  53  53  56  62  68
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................47  51  54  58  60  62  64  65  65  66
RH..................43  39  35  32  31  30  28  29  30  30
20 FT WIND DIR......E   E   E   SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......8   8   9   9   10  10  10  10  10  10
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 1.3 2.5 3.6 4.4 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.1 4.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.....E   E   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....8   12  15  17  18  17  17  17  18  17
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   5   5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING. SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 48.
MAX HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 9 MPH.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-3000 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 0-600 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 14 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............73  79  82  81  81  81  81  81  100 100 100 100
WEATHER COV.........        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE........        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............
TEMP................64  62  60  59  58  57  55  54  53  53  52  51
RH..................34  38  42  46  50  55  60  65  71  74  77  80
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......9   9   9   9   9   8   8   8   8   8   8   8
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......3.0 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.....S   S   SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....14  10  7   6   6   6   6   6   7   9   12  14
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   3   3

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL LATE
                    AFTERNOON...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
MIN HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7 TO 8 MPH.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............100 100 100 99  96  94  91  89  87  85  79  74
WEATHER COV.........LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............
TEMP................50  50  49  51  54  57  59  62  65  65  65  66
RH..................84  88  93  87  82  77  73  69  65  64  63  62
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD......8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.6 2.3 3.2 4.0 5.1 5.9 5.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.....S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....14  13  13  14  15  16  15  13  12  13  14  15
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........3   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3

$$
FORECASTER...WFO CTP
REQUESTED BY...STEVE BERNARDI
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150416.SGL46.03/CTP



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