Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000
FNUS71 KRNK 051138
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR OBIDS CREEK...N. C. FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
738 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON MAY 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE FAVORABLE FOR BURNING
IF YOU CAN TOLERATE THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM THREAT AND LACK
OF A GOOD TRANSPORT WIND.

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN A PROMINENT FEATURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...RESULTING IN DEEP MIXING BUT WEAK
TRANSPORT WINDS.  WINDS AT EYE LEVEL WILL BE TERRAIN DRIVEN...
LIGHT UPSLOPE DURING THE DAY...AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE AT NIGHT.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL HEAD SOUTH INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SWING AROUND AND
COME FROM A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

A THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
EXISTS FOR BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. CUMULUS CLOUD BUILD-UPS
OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES WILL BEGIN LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS DURING THE PEAK
HEATING PART OF THE DAY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
BY SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CLOUDS ALSO FADING
AFTER SUNDOWN.

&&

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY THIS MORNING(LESS THAN 20 CLOUD COVER)...
                    THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT CLOUD)
                    THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WEST WIND LESS THAN 5 MPH THIS MORNING
                    BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS CAN EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1500 FT AGL THROUGH 0930 AM...
                    INCREASING TO 6300 FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...BECOMING
                    SOUTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (EDT)          NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............27     58     68
WEATHER COV.........ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............       ISOLTD ISOLTD
TEMP................67     71     72
RH..................48     42     39
20 FT WIND..........W 3    SE 4   S 4
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)........4500   5400   6000
TRANSPORT WIND......VRBL 3 SE 5    SE 7
LVORI...............2      2      2
ADI.................27     16     23
CWR.................20     30     30

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (30-50 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN
                    THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE IN THE
                    EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56.
MAX HUMIDITY........77 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CWR (0.01 IN).......30 PERCENT...DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 9 MPH...DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 5 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............69     64     59     55     49     43
WEATHER COV.........SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............ISOLTD ISOLTD
TEMP................72     68     65     62     60     59
RH..................42     49     56     65     71     74
20 FT WIND..........S 3    S 3    S 4    SW 5   SW 5   W 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     5      10     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)........5300   3500   1300   300    300    300
TRANSPORT WIND......S 8    S 9    S 7    SW 7   SW 7   W 7
LVORI...............2      2      3      3      3      3
ADI.................28     6      5      4      5      5
CWR.................30     30     20     10     10     10

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (40-60 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.  GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING
                    SOUTHEAST 4 TO 7 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING
                    AND AFTERNOON.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............35     27     24     38     61     64
WEATHER COV.........                            CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............                            S CHC  CHANCE
TEMP................57     60     65     68     71     72
RH..................77     65     54     47     44     43
20 FT WIND..........NW 4   N 2    N 2    N 2    E 2    SE 2
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     5      5      5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)........300    400    3000   4500   5100   5400
TRANSPORT WIND......NW 6   N 5    NE 6   E 7    SE 7   SE 7
LVORI...............4      3      2      1      2      1
ADI.................2      3      21     39     27     30
CWR.................10     10     10     10     30     30

$$
FORECASTER...MANUEL
REQUESTED BY...RICHARD COCKERHAM
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150505.OBIDS.01/RNK


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