Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 060007
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
TXZ000-OKZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/06/15 0007Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:2345Z  JS
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LOCATION...N CENT TEXAS/S CENT OKLAHOMA...
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ATTN WFOS...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...ABRFC...WGRFC...
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EVENT...UPDATE TO PREVIOUS 12 PLANET MESSAGES SENT EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON FOR FTW/SJT FOR EVOLUTION OF POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN EVENT THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...PATTERN RECOGNITION ALONG WITH ANALYSIS
OF SATELLITE DATA AND MESO-ANALYSIS STILL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF N CENT
TX, AND LIKELY NOW ALSO IMPACTING PORTIONS OF S CENT OK. THIS PATTERN
RECOGNITION IS BASED ON ANOMALOUS MID/UPPER LOW OVER N NM COMBINED
WITH DOWNSTREAM DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND CONFLUENT MOIST LOW LEVEL INFLOW
ENCOUNTERING SUBTLE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE AXIS.
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CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS EXHIBITED A SLIGHT OVERALL INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER PORTIONS OF N TX/S OK WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY
LIMITING MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSCALE GROWTH. ONE ITEM OF NOTE RECENTLY
HAS BEEN THE MERGING OF OUTFLOW APPROACHING FROM THE SE INTO SE-S CENT
OK/NE-N CENT TX WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPTICK
IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY. THIS IS ALSO A SIGN THAT A SEPARATE CHANNEL OF
RELATIVELY HIGHER MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE W GULF AND MOVING NW
ACROSS SE TX TO N CENT TX/SE OK HAS NOW VIRTUALLY BECOME ENTRAINED INTO
CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL INFLOW DIRECTED INTO N TX/S OK. EVIDENCE OF THIS
MOISTURE FEED ALSO IS SEEN IN SFC DEWPOINTS WITH NOSE OF MID 60`S TO NEAR
70F DEWPOINTS STRETCHING FROM THE RED RIVER REGION N OF DALLAS-FT WORTH TO
THE SE TX COAST. VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SFC ANALYSIS STILL INDICATES LOWER
LEVEL BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE RED RIVER REGION
OF S CENT OK/N CENT TX(JUST NE OF GAINSVILLE KGLE) TO NEAR/JUST WEST OF
THE DALLAS-FT WORTH AREA TO POSSIBLE WEAK SFC WAVE EAST OF LUBBOCK.
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FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND BEYOND, WATCHING THE APPROACH OF ADDED
LIFT FROM TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING EAST CURRENTLY OVER W TX TO
ENCOUNTER NOCTURNALLY INCREASING AND ONLY VERY GRADUALLY VEERING SOUTHERLY
LLJ. IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY PINPOINT A VERY SPECIFIC THREAT
LOCATION WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE WITHIN LARGER THREAT AREA HIGHLIGHTED
BY WPC EXCESSIVE GRAPHIC/DISCUSSION WHICH ENCOMPASSES A SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF OK AND N CENT TX. HOWEVER, THE CONTINUED EVIDENCE OF THE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE AXIS STRETCHING FROM N CENT TX TO S CENT OK
DEFINITELY IS OF PARTICULAR INTEREST WHICH IMPLIES POTENTIALLY A GREATER
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE REGION FROM NEAR/JUST
W OF DALLAS-FT WORTH NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD TO OVER THE RED RIVER INTO S
CENT OK TO THE SE OF OKC. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND VERY MOIST PROFILES
GENERALLY BELOW 700MB ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL MEAN FLOW THROUGH THE
COLUMN SHOULD PROMOTE EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE THOUGH IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS EVENT.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10 MINUTES.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3644 9703 3594 9619 3436 9591 3303 9649 3210 9783
3187 9964 3265 9983 3394 9893 3587 9822
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