Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 190532
SWODY2
SPC AC 190531

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
APPALCHIANS...MID-ATLANTIC...CAROLINAS...ERN GA AND NE FL
PENINSULA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN APPALCHIANS...MID-ATLANTIC...CAROLINAS...ERN GULF COAST STATES
AND FL PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
GEORGIA.

...CNTRL APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY
ON MONDAY AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NEWD INTO THE CNTRL
APPALACHIAN MTNS. AT THE SFC...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN
THE FOOTHILLS OF THE APPALACHIANS AS A SFC LOW MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD INTO THE
OH AND TN VALLEYS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IN THE OH VALLEY WITH A MARGINAL WIND-DAMAGE THREAT
DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN KY...OH AND NRN PA DURING THE DAY AS SFC TEMPS
WARM. FURTHER SOUTH...THE MODELS DEVELOP POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY FROM THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS
EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SEVERAL CLUSTERS PERSISTING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z/MONDAY FROM CNTRL VA SWD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F WITH MLCAPE VALUES
IN THE 100O TO 1200 J/KG RANGE. WIND PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO BE
UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM JUST ABOVE THE SFC TO MID-LEVELS. AS STORMS
INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
SUPPORT MULTICELLS WITH WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS...STORMS MAY TEND TO
ORGANIZE INTO LINES. ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN DEVELOP WOULD PROBABLY
HAVE A LARGE-HAIL THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ALSO CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION.

...SE GA/FL...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
ON MONDAY AS A BROAD WARM SECTOR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN
GULF COAST STATES AND FL. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD IN THE FL PANHANDLE AND NERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH THIS
CONVECTION MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL FL PENINSULA IN THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THIS
CONVECTION ON MONDAY AT 18Z SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F WITH
MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND 40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
IF A COLD POOL CAN MOVE ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL FL PENINSULA
MONDAY. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER CORES EMBEDDED IN
THE LINE. EXTENDED THE SLIGHT-RISK AREA SWD INTO THE NERN FL
PENINSULA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

..BROYLES.. 04/19/2015



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