Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270940
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON APR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N93W TO 09N108W TO 08N116W TO 02N128W
TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
04N TO 07N BETWEEN 96W AND 100W...AND FROM 03N TO 12N BETWEEN
111W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM NEW MEXICO ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA
TO 21N127W. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS W OF THE TROUGH AND A WIDE
SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED NE E OF THE TROUGH
FROM ACTIVE CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR THE ITCZ.

STRONG NW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT W OF
SO-CAL EXTEND INTO DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 118W AND
122W...PRODUCING FRESH NW SWELL OF 8-11 FT REACHING TO 24N W OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATER
TODAY AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT EARLY TUE MORNING.

1026 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N132W EXTENDS A RIDGE TO
AROUND 17N W OF 119W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGE AND
LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 127W AND 134W. THE GRADIENT WILL
SLACKEN THROUGH 48 HOURS...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH
IN THIS AREA THROUGH WED.

NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM A LOW NEAR
38N142W TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL REACH FAR NW PART OF THE
AREA TUE...THEN QUICKLY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.

GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING
WITH SEAS RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 11-12 FT.

$$
MUNDELL


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