Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 022305
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
705 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

QUITE THE ACTIVE DAY IN THE OFFICE...DESPITE THE OVERALL LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT "WEATHER". OF COURSE...HAVING A RARE EARTHQUAKE BE FELT
ACROSS THE CWA CERTAINLY DOESN`T HURT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING REMAINS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WITH DEEP
MIXING UP TO 9KFT ALLOWING RH VALUES TO TANK...WHILE ALSO PROMOTING
SOME QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS. IN FACT...WE ARE PUSHING RED FLAG
CRITERIA IN A FEW SPOTS...THOUGH PER COORDINATION WITH DNR...IT`S
NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ANY ISSUANCE. THAT BEING
SAID...QUITE THE SLEW OF FIRES OUT THERE TODAY...INCLUDING ONE AT
150 ACRES AS OF 19Z DOWN EAST OF ST. HELEN. OUTSIDE OF THE FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES...NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT...WITH SOME STEEPER
LAPSE RATES ALOFT PROMOTING SOME HIGHER BASED CU OUT EAST WHILE SOME
SHREDS OF THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUD ARE WORKING OVERHEAD...COURTESY OF
A WEAKISH SHORTWAVE ROLLING THROUGH THE FLOW.

OVERNIGHT...JUST NOT SEEING A WHOLE LOT OF ISSUES WITH OF COURSE
FIRE CONCERNS ABATING WITH DIURNAL COOLING. HAVING A HARD TIME
BUYING IN THE GFS DEPICTION OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FIRING...IN PART
DUE TO ITS SURFACE DEW POINT FIELD THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING READINGS
IN THE 50S (UMMM...NOT SO MUCH). THAT SAID...THERE IS A VERY SKINNY
AXIS OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AS BETTER MOISTURE DOES VERY SLOWLY
WORK BACK NORTH. DRYNESS DOWN LOW REALLY MAKES ME THINK WE WON`T
DEAL WITH ANYTHING WORSE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO AT WORST ALONG THAT
THETA-E AXIS...WITH PERSISTENT UPSTREAM CONVECTION DOWN ACROSS IA/MO
JUST NOT DOING MUCH TO HEIGHTEN CONFIDENCE (INTERCEPTING OUR BETTER
MOISTURE). AS SUCH...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING...WITH JUST SOME
PASSING MID OR HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. CERTAINLY MILDER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: BROAD WESTERLY FLOW STRETCHES ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH WARMER AIR
FINALLY GETTING INTO STATE. STRONGER SHORT WAVE AND UPPER JET ENERGY
CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ALONG U.S.-CANADIAN
BORDER...A SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT US LATER TOMORROW. ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PULL WARMER AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR INTO THE REGION...EVIDENCED BY BOUTS OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION AND MORE
SUBSTANTIAL CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY. EVEN SEEING A COUPLE MID LEVEL
RADAR BLIPS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE/COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE
STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SW FLOW WARM
ADVECTION PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY AND WE WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO
SEE SOME OF THAT UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER OVER THE MIDWEST TODAY STREAM
UP INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON DO REVEAL A FEW HUNDRED JOULES/KG MLCAPE ACROSS THE
CWA AND LIMITED CINH ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...ASSUMING WE CAN GET
LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS INTO THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE. IF THAT DOES
OCCUR...CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON POP-UP
SHOWERS/THUNDER ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN (AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN). BUT WILL NOT ADD IT TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT AS I
THINK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE LIKELY A TAD OVERDONE (HAVE
FORECAST DEWPOINTS OF 40 TO 45). BUT SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RAMP UP IN EARNEST SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AND WE BRING UPPER JET FORCING/QG-
ASCENT INTO THE PICTURE. GOING FORECAST HAS A PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL
SHOWERS/CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW NIGHT WHICH LOOKS FINE AT
THIS POINT.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT GETS SUPPRESSED DOWN THROUGH SRN
LOWER MICHIGAN BEFORE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. STALLED W-E
FRONT...AN INTERESTING SET-UP FOR CONTINUED RAINFALL ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER LAKES...SOME OF WHICH MIGHT CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS OUR FAR SRN COUNTIES. BUT TIMING/PLACEMENT IS
EVERYTHING AND WE WILL HAVE TO SEE JUST HOW THINGS UNFOLD. HAVE
SLOWED THE PROGRESS OF FROPA JUST A SMIDGE ON MONDAY...KEEPING POPS
IN THE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
AGAIN THAT WILL DEPEND ON JUST WHERE THAT FRONT SETS UP.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MILD PATTERN TO CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A STRONG 500MB RIDGE
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE STATE AND OHIO VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND.
CORRESPONDING 850MB TEMPS AROUND 12C...WILL HELP GENERATE DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 70S (AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES) THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ACROSS THE NRN LAKES
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS SFC DEW PTS WARM TO AROUND 50F AND
850MB DEW PTS WARM TO AROUND 10C IN ADVANCE OF A NRN PLAINS STORM
SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES
THRU SUNDAY EVENING...WITH ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. LLWS
WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS WINDS JUST OFF THE
DECK STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. SW SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS BY MID MORNING SUNDAY AS
DAYTIME MIXING BEGINS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS WE HEAD
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THINGS LOOK TO GET A LITTLE MORE WINDY ON THE WATER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS WE TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STABILITY ISSUES GIVEN THE COLD WATER WILL CERTAINLY COME INTO
PLAY...BUT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER LAKE HURON FROM OFFSHORE MIXING OF STRONGER INLAND
WINDS (MAYBE PUSHING 25 KNOTS)...WHILE A LONGER FETCH UP LAKE
MICHIGAN LIKELY PUSHES WAVES TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
WIND AND WAVES SHOULD ABATE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES...WITH THAT HIGH STICKING AROUND INTO MIDWEEK WITH
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...LAWRENCE


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