Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 252008
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
408 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING...MINUS LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

LET`S JUST COME RIGHT OUT AND SAY IT: CONFIDENCE ISN`T EXACTLY
STELLAR TONIGHT REGARDING CLOUD COVER. THANKFULLY THAT`S ABOUT THE
ONLY REAL ISSUE OF CONSEQUENCE...AND EVEN THEN IT`S NOT A HUGE DEAL
WITH NO PRECIPITATION CHANCE WHATSOEVER. EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS
DEPICTS QUITE THE CLOSED MID LEVEL GYRE SPINNING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE...WITH BROAD CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW BACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...ALL WHILE A SECONDARY (AND WEAKENING) UPPER WAVE IS SCOOTING
TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES. BAND OF PERSISTENT DEFORMATION HAS
CONTINUALLY HELPED TO REDEVELOP SOME VERY PESKY MID LEVEL CLOUDS DOWN
ACROSS SOUTHWEST COUNTIES TODAY...WITH THINGS JUST NOW THINNING OUT
IN TIME FOR PEAK HEATING. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW LEVEL RIDGING
EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY DOWN INTO MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A BATCH OF DEEPER MOISTURE NOTED SLOWLY WRAPPING BACK
WESTWARD THROUGH QUEBEC AND EASTERN ONTARIO - THE SOURCE OF OUR
POTENTIAL CLOUD TROUBLES THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. EMANATING FROM THAT
HIGH IS QUITE THE BATCH OF DRY AIR ONCE AGAIN...WITH DIURNAL
MIXING KICKING HUMIDITY LEVELS DOWN INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE
IN MANY AREAS...RESULTING IN A WILDFIRE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
OFFICE. MORAL OF THE STORY: IT IS DRY - PLEASE DON`T BURN!

ANYWAY...HEADING THROUGH THE EVENING...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WILL
DOMINATE FOR ALL AREAS WITH QUITE THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH
HUMIDITY LEVELS GRADUALLY RECOVERING. HOWEVER...AS A WEAK
ELONGATED SHORTWAVE SPINS ITS WAY SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN LOW...IT WILL DO ITS BEST TO HELP
TRANSPORT OF OF THAT DEEPER MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. AT THE
MOMENT...WE CONTINUE TO FIGHT BOTH DIURNAL MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE
EFFECTS...WITH CONTINUAL EROSION OF THE CLOUD DECK OVER ONTARIO.
THAT MAY CHANGE TOWARD 03Z AND ONWARD WITH A NOTABLE UPTICK IN
MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THE EARLIER MIXED LAYER...SUGGESTING WE MAY
SEE CLOUDS REDEVELOP AND/OR EXPAND SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD NORTHEAST
LOWER...PERHAPS EVEN HELPED ALONG BY A SUBTLE LAKE HURON COMPONENT
AS WE COOL THE 925-850MB LAYER A BIT. AREAS FARTHER WEST JUST LOOK
WAY TOO DRY (ESPECIALLY WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE TEENS TODAY) TO
SUPPORT MUCH OF A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF CLOUDS...THOUGH THAT MAY
OCCUR MORE TOMORROW. FOR NOW WILL PAINT SOME MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING
EAST OF I-75 AND SEE WHERE TRENDS TAKE US. AS ALLUDED TO
ABOVE...THIS REALLY ISN`T A HUGE DEAL WITH LIMITED IMPACT...AS ANY
MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW AND HAVE NO CHANCE TO PRODUCE PRECIP.
OUTSIDE OF CLOUDS...SHOULD BE A "WARMER" NIGHT OF SORTS THAN
RECENT NIGHTS...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 30S AS
WE HOLD ONTO A BIT OF A GRADIENT THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

...VARYING CLOUD COVER SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH NOT MUCH RAINFALL
EXPECTED...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW/ACTIVE SOUTHERN
BRANCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN U.S. WITH ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY DIGGING IN BEHIND IT INTO CALIFORNIA.  ANOTHER SMALL
HIGH LATITUDE VORTEX OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA THAT WAS
SHED OFF FROM THE NEW ENGLAND LOW...WITH SOME HIGHER HEIGHTS/RIDGING
BUILDING BETWEEN THESE FEATURES.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 994MB LOW
SPINNING ACROSS MISSOURI...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES/MID ATLANTIC.

GREAT LAKES TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEW ENGLAND UPPER
LOW THROUGH MONDAY WITH STRENGTHENING NORTH/NORTHEAST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES AND PATTERN BECOMES MORE BLOCKY.
UPPER LOW SLOWLY GIVES WAY AS INFLUENCE OF +PNA/+EPO INCREASES...
RESULTANT HEIGHT RISES ADVANCING INTO THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK SENDS
MORE COOL AIR INTO THE REGION.  VARIOUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPINNING
BACK ACROSS THE REGION MAY MAKE FOR SOME TRICKY SPOTS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE DETAILS WILL DIFFER BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS GUIDANCE...WITH NARROW SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO
MICHIGAN IN THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.  WHILE CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS
ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY...NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL LIE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH NORTHERLY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW ACROSS MICHIGAN.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD COVER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS
A RAIN THREAT SUNDAY NIGHT?  DECREASING CLOUDS MONDAY...CHILLY
MONDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH/
VORTICITY CENTER OVER NORTHWEST QUEBEC RETROGRADING BACK TOWARD
EASTERN ONTARIO.  THIS PIECE OF ENERGY EXPECTED TO ROTATE BACK INTO
LAKE HURON/LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  THERE IS ALSO A
DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST ONTARIO WHICH HAS MADE A LITTLE
PROGRESS TOWARD GEORGIAN BAY THIS AFTERNOON.  COMBINATION OF
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL LEAD TOWARD MORE OF A MIXED SKY FOR SUNDAY...PROBABLY
MORE SUN WEST-MORE CLOUDS EAST TYPE SET UP.  AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH SOME MORE
CLOUDS AND A DEEP LAYER COOL POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  INITIAL VORTICITY
CENTER EXITS SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER ON ITS HEELS
THAT WILL SLIDE BACK PRETTY MUCH ALONG THE SAME TRACK AS ITS`
PREDECESSOR (LAKE HURON/EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN).  THIS SHOULD KEEP
SKIES ON ON THE CLOUDIER SIDE SUNDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY CAN`T RULE OUT
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES IF MOIST LAYER IS DEEP ENOUGH
(NOT CERTAIN ABOUT THAT POSSIBILITY).

MONDAY...SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH NORTHERN
MICHIGAN MONDAY MORNING...SOME EARLY CLOUDS WITH A TREND TOWARD MORE
SUN DURING THE DAY IS ANTICIPATED...AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE.  DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT...SO
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL.

TUESDAY...NARROW RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
SHORT WAVE TROUGHING PUSHED INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY HEIGHT RISES ADVANCING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS/PRAIRIE
PROVINCES.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF AN IMPACT WITH THIS FEATURE UNTIL
TUESDAY EVENING...ANTICIPATING THAT A SLOWER TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL WIN OUT.  EXPECT TO SEE MORE HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS INTERIOR
AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE BREEZE INDUCED COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD SEEMS TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY...
RETURNING RAIN CHANCES TO ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGE ALOFT BEHIND
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION-
FREE WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT OF A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT WITH TIMING IS VERY LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S OVER NORTHERN LOWER THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
MODELS STARTING TO FLIRT WITH THE IDEA OF 70 ON SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE...BUT WE
ALL KNOW THAT THAT CAN CHANGE WITHIN THE NEXT WEEK!

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

A BIT OF A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST WHEN IT COMES TO CLOUD COVER
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO FOR MANY AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL REMAIN AROUND MBL WHERE SOME THICKER 12-14KFT
CLOUDS STILL RESIDE...BUT THOSE WILL DISSIPATE INTO MID
AFTERNOON. DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM
EASTERN ONTARIO SHOULD TRY TO SNEAK INTO APN LATER TONIGHT...
THOUGH WITH CEILINGS REMAINING VFR. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IS
QUITE LOW REGARDING WHETHER OR NOT SOME OF THESE CLOUDS WILL SPILL
IN...AND CURRENT THINKING IS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR CLOUDS WILL
ARRIVE MORE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH CEILINGS MAINLY VFR ONCE
AGAIN. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST INTO THE
EVENING...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT TIMES...DECREASING
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO MAJOR MARINE ISSUES ARE FORESEEN THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND
LIKELY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DRIVING FORCE OF OUR WEATHER LOCALLY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW BOUTS OF
SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW AT TIMES...THOUGH NOTHING WORSE
THAN 15-20 KNOTS. DRY WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
MARINE...LAWRENCE



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