Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 272318
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
718 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING MUCH. COULD BE SOME FOG IN
A FEW SPOTS PENDING CLOUD TRENDS.

ANOTHER NIGHT...ANOTHER CHALLENGING CLOUD FORECAST AS WE CONTINUE TO
SEE BOUTS OF BETTER MOISTURE WRAP WESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A
STALLED MID LEVEL CYCLONE OFF THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST. BIGGEST
INFLUENCE OF THAT MOISTURE TODAY HAS COME IN THE FORM OF THICKER
STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT...MORPHING OUT FROM EARLIER LOWER STRATUS DECK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ALREADY INTERESTING THIS TIME OF YEAR TO
SEE THE INFLUENCE OF THE STABLE LAKES...WITH NORTH FLOW PROMOTING
SOME SUNSHINE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE...BUT WITH EVEN THAT
BEING OVERCOME FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS ANOTHER BATCH OF THICKER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE POURS SOUTH FROM ONTARIO.

HEADING INTO THE EVENING AND TONIGHT...SUSPECT CLOUDS ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHWEST LOWER WILL CONTINUE TO MIX OUT...GENERALLY WEST OF US-
131 AND SOUTH OF M-72...WHILE ANY HOLES IN THE THICKER OVERCAST
ELSEWHERE SOLIDIFY ONCE AGAIN WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING AFTER SUNSET. IN ADDITION...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF BETTER
MOISTURE ROLLING SOUTHWARD...THAT SHOULD ONLY SERVE TO ENHANCE LOWER
CLOUD COVER (NOT SURE HOW LOW) THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION
AGAIN LOOKS TO BE THE ABOVE-MENTIONED AREAS WHERE VEERING WIND
PROFILES TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP CLOUD
COVER THINNED OUT. HOWEVER...THOSE SPOTS (SHOULD THEY ACTUALLY STAY
CLEAR) MAY HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE SOME FOG GIVEN LESS MIXED DEW POINTS
TODAY...THOUGH AMBIENT VERY DRY GROUND WON`T HELP THAT CHANCE. ALL
IN ALL...A TOUGH AND SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT STRONGLY
SUSPECT MANY AREAS WILL WAKE UP TO ANOTHER GRAY START TO THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

...NICE DAY TUESDAY/TRENDING TOWARD INCREASED SHOWER THREAT
WEDNESDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: UPPER VORTEX OVER ATLANTIC CANADA EXTENDS
BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES...AND A CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OVER TEXAS.  FIVE WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IS A PROGRESSIVE
ONE EXCEPT FOR THE BLOCKINESS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW ENCOMPASSING THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
U.S..  CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH
FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT FROM MANITOBA SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
BRISK NORTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES AHEAD OF
THIS SURFACE RIDGE.

UPPER LOW WILL RELAX ITS GRIP ON THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AS NORTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT
LAKES DURING MIDWEEK AS HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE PLAINS/CENTRAL
CANADA.  EVENTUALLY...STRONGER PACIFIC FLOW WILL TRY TO PUSH THIS
RIDGING INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS BY WEEK`S END.  HIGH PRESSURE AND
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO MICHIGAN FOR TUESDAY...SURFACE
PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS RATHER DISORGANIZED WEDNESDAY WITH ARRIVAL
OF NORTHERN BRANCH HEIGHT FALLS.  GOOD DEAL OF SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE DETAILS WITH THIS FEATURE (E.G., CLOSED LOW
DEPICTED BY AMERICAN GUIDANCE VERSUS AN OPEN WAVE)...THOUGH THE
TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD A STRONGER WAVE MOVING THROUGH MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY (NAM/GGEM).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: IMPACTS OF A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SOLUTION
ON THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

TUESDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THE DAY
TUESDAY...PROBABLY WITH A GOOD BIT OF CLOUD COVER STILL LINGERING
AROUND TUESDAY MORNING.  THIS SHOULD MIX INTO A THINNER
STRATOCUMULUS DECK DURING THE DAY WITH SUBSIDENCE PUSHING INVERSION
HEIGHTS LOWER.  SO NOT A BAD AFTERNOON OVERALL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE AREAS WHERE LAKE BREEZES WILL PREDOMINATE.  FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT DEALING WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER WAVE AND REMNANTS OF PLAINS
COLD FRONT.  AS MENTIONED EARLIER THERE IS SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FEATURE.
SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT (ANAFRONT)...AND THE REMNANTS OF THIS CLOUD BAND ARE WHAT
WILL REACH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LIKELY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  LAPSE
RATES MAY STEEPEN WITH COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...SO A FEW
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN.

WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH/ANTICIPATED CLOSED LOW
FORECAST TO ROTATE SOUTH INTO MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AND WHILE THE TREND IS IN FAVOR OF THIS SCENARIO THERE
ARE STILL ISSUES WITH REGARD TO TIMING.  THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT AS
TIMING OF COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WILL PLAY A
FACTOR IN ALLOWING FOR ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP (REMOVE
RESIDUAL CAPPING INVERSION) AND ALLOW FOR SOME DIURNALLY ENHANCED
SHOWERS TO FORM WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  ALTHOUGH THE
GFS IS THE QUICKEST SOLUTION AND THUS MOST BULLISH ON THIS
SCENARIO...THERE IS SUPPORT FROM SOME OF THE PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
FOR THIS AND FEEL COMFORTABLE AT LEAST GETTING THIS IDEA IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE TRENDS MAINLY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS
THIS LITTLE BOWLING BALL OF ENERGY SPINS SOUTHWARD ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY...PROVIDED WE CAN PUSH THIS PIECE OF ENERGY THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY THOUGH
MAY START WITH SOME CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  WILL TREND THE
FORECAST TOWARD MORE SUN AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON.  MAINLY 50S FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY (NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS).

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

OVERALL PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL AS THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FLATTENS OUT THROUGH FRIDAY. PACIFIC INFLUENCE SHOULD BRING A
BIT MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA...PWATS ARE PROGGED NEAR 75TH
PERCENTILE RANGE BY SATURDAY. KEEPING INHERITED DRY FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON SHORTWAVE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACKING
AS THERE COULD BE SOME NUISANCE SHOWERS THAT CREEP IN. CHANCES FOR
RAIN PICK UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS MOIST RETURN FLOW FROM THE
GULF COMBINES WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR
HUDSON BAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM NEAR
NORMAL UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S FRIDAY...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR MANY
AREAS BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 718 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

MVFR CIGS PLN/APN LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...AROUND A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER FAR EASTERN CANADA. CIGS (WHERE
PRESENT) ARE PRESENTLY VFR...BUT WILL SLOWLY LOWER AFTER SUNSET.
EXPECT APN/PLN TO BE MVFR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. TVC WILL
LIKELY SEE A LOW-END VFR CIG...WHILE MBL WILL BE LARGELY
UNRESTRICTED.

LIGHT N TO NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

BRIEF UPTICK IN STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW THAT OCCURRED TODAY WILL
FADE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE REGION. THAT SETUP WILL
DELIVER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...WITH LOCALIZED WINDS DOMINATED BY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH ONCE AGAIN BUT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 15
KNOTS OR LESS. A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE FOR LATE WEEK MEANS ANOTHER
BOUT OF LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES WILL RETURN JUST IN TIME TO
WELCOME THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...LAWRENCE


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