Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 241014
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
614 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

...STILL CHILLY BUT SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...VERY LITTLE GOING ON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS
SETTLING IN DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...WITHIN IN INCREASING MID LEVEL
HEIGHT REGIME...ON THE FORWARD FLANK OF SHALLOW CENTRAL CONUS
RIDGING. AXIS OF STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE AND AXIS OF DRIEST AIR AROUND
IS ALSO BISECTING NRN MICHIGAN. THE RESULT...CLEAR SKIES. THERE IS
STILL SOME BL WIND OUT THERE...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT "CRATERED"
BUT ARE DIPPING INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S MOST AREAS.

UPSTREAM...TWO SHORTWAVES IN MID LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE ROCKIES HAS
RESULTED IN TWO AREAS OF LEE SIDE SFC LOW PRESSURE. ONE WORKING INTO
WESTERN SD AND ANOTHER EASTERN COLORADO. LOWER ATMOSPHERIC SOUTH
FLOW EXTENDED FROM TEXAS THROUGH ALL OF THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND WAS
PRODUCING A LONG SWATH OF DEEP LAYER WAA. THERE WERE SEVERAL AREAS
OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITHIN THE WAA...AND SOME OF THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WAS TRYING TO STRETCH INTO WISCONSIN AND IOWA.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH TODAY AND MOST
ALL OF TONIGHT...AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE WEAK...AS WILL SFC
BASED WARM ADVECTION. THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL COLD POOL WILL EXIT
FURTHER EAST HOWEVER...AND MIXING TODAY WILL TAP INTO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...REACHING THE 40S AND LOW 50S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT
AN AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE MAY KEEP IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS IN THE
UPPER 30S. THE DEEP LAYER WAA THAT WAS SETTLES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CENTRAL CONUS WILL FOCUS MORE ACROSS MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO
RIVER VALLEYS. THIS IS DUE TO STRONGER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT FROM
THE COLORADO SFC LOW...WHICH DRIFTS INTO THE OK/KS BORDER THIS
EVENING...AND MISSOURI TONIGHT. THUS...FEELING IS THAT THE ADVECTION
OF THOSE MID AND UPPER CLOUDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL ERODE WITH TIME...BUT MORE OF THIS HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. MOST AREAS LIKELY TO SEE A DECENTLY
SUNNY DAY TODAY...WITH SOME POSSIBLE THICKER HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD
ACROSS THE GTV BAY REGION. TONIGHT...A BETTER SHOT AT SEEING A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY ACROSS THE M-55 CORRIDOR.

LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NONE.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN UP AS IT MOVES EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...EVENTUALLY GETTING ABSORBED
IN THE LARGER CYCLONE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH...CROSSING KY SAT
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL BE
EXTENDING RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES. WHETHER PRECIP HAS ANY
CHANCE OF GETTING THIS FAR NORTH IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...850MB THERMAL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP
CONSIDERABLY SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN IL/IN INTO CENTRAL OHIO. MAX
850-700MB 2D FGEN IS JUST NORTH OF THIS AXIS (NO BIG SURPRISE)...
OVER SOUTHERN WI AND FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI. 700-500MB FGEN CENTERED
ON SOUTHERN LOWER MI ON SATURDAY...BEFORE SHUNTING TO THE S AND E
SAT NIGHT. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE MODELS BRING PRECIP FURTHEST
NORTHWARD SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE RETREATING SOUTHWARD. ALSO NOT
SURPRISING TO SEE THAT...GIVEN EVEN 700-500MB FORCING IS FIRMLY TO
OUR SOUTH...MODELS KEEP PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH. IN FACT...00Z MODELS
HAVE TRENDED SOUTHWARD OVER EARLIER RUNS.

ANTICIPATING A MID-CLOUD DECK ALREADY IN PLACE TO START THE DAY IN
FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS (SOUTH OF A TVC-OSC LINE). THE CLOUD DECK WILL
LARGELY REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE ERODING LATE
IN THE DAY. NO PRECIP. QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL AID IN SOMEWHAT MILDER MAX TEMPS.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR BECOME THAT WAY SAT EVENING. A SHORTWAVE
CIRCULATING AROUND THE LARGER LOW TO THE EAST MAY SPREAD SOME CLOUD
COVER INTO EASTERN UPPER VERY LATE SAT NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
TO SOMEWHAT BELOW FREEZING.

SUNDAY/SUN NIGHT...MOISTURE-STARVED UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS MI ON SUNDAY. ONLY SURFACE REFLECTION IS TO SLIGHTLY RETARD
THE PROGRESS OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE WESTERN LAKES. THE ONLY RESULT
WILL BE A RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN THE EAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MORE SUN IN THE WEST. EXPECT SOMETHING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. BUT AGAIN...NO RISK OF PRECIP WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL
DRY AIR. MAX TEMPS A SMIDGE WARMER...NEAR 50F TO THE MID 50S. MIN
TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

TRANQUIL. UPPER PATTERN REMAINS ONLY VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE...WITH
A PROMINENT RIDGE GRADUALLY WORKING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST...AND AN
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MEANDERING AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST. IN BETWEEN...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS FOLDING OVER TOP OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE OUR BIGGEST PLAYER...AT LEAST IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WX DRY THRU AT LEAST THRU
TUESDAY...WITH WARMING TEMPS (LIKELY NEARING CLIMO BY TUESDAY). THE
CRYSTAL BALL GETS A BIT MORE CLOUDY AFTER THAT...BUT THE BULK OF
MODELS SUPPORT WEAK NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES DIGGING BACK INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THAT DEPARTING RIDGE. THIS WILL LIKELY COOL US OFF
AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES ARE TO THIS POINT
UNIMPRESSIVE...AS SYSTEMS APPEAR WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED. WILL
GENERALLY KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...THOUGH THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR
THAT TO CHANGE ONCE WE HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MEANDER AROUND THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. ONLY SOME HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED...BUT WITH SOME LOWER VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR
TVC AND MBL TONIGHT. MAYBE A SPRINKLE NEAR MBL...BUT THAT IS
DOUBTFUL.

WINDS...UNDER 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE NW TODAY...GOING LIGHT EAST OR
CALM TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND A TENDENCY TO
TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOONS. THUS...NO FORESEEABLE MARINE
CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...JAZ
LONG TERM...JAZ
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD


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