Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 011746
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
146 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

...NICER FOR MOST TODAY...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO BORDER WITH 994 MB LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SKIES HAVE CLEARED OFF NICELY ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO REBOUND. THE
MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND TYPE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE STRAITS REGION LATE
TODAY.

FINALLY A WELL DESERVED NICE DAY FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN OUT
AHEAD OF INCOMING STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION LATER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SURFACE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE STRAITS REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHERN END OF BEST F-GEN/Q-VECTOR FORCING
APPEARS TO JUST SCRAP EASTERN UPPER. MODELS HAVE THIS REGION
BULLSEYED FOR BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT (WITH A HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF
AN INCH JUST TO THE NORTH). CURRENT FORECAST DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO
WELL SO WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM THIS PLAN. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
TYPE GOES...MODEL SOUNDINGS LEAVE ROOM FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING
PROCESSES TO TURN RAIN OVER TO SNOW SO HAVE LEFT THE MIX OF BOTH FOR
NOW AND WILL SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT AFTER PRECIPITATION ARRIVES.
ELSEWHERE...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS
THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE
50S ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER (EXPECT COOLER NEAR THE LAKE SHORES).
HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER IN THE LOWER 40S FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

...NICE DAY FOR SOME/INCREASING PRECIP THREAT FOR OTHERS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POSSIBILITY FOR SOME THUNDER ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER OVERNIGHT. "SNEAKY" WET SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL
FOR EASTERN UPPER LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: APRIL COMMENCES WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
DEPARTING NORTHEAST LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING...MIDNIGHT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE LOW (1014MB) OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENDING TROUGH AXIS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.  PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MICHIGAN WAS RELATIVELY
FLAT...INCREASING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/PLAINS WHERE A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA.  50+ SURFACE DEW
POINTS/PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOVE 1 INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UP TO THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER.
ELONGATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY/ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WERE
PUSHING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING/HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS EAST ACROSS
THE MIDWEST AND BUILDING INTO THE UPPER LAKES.  THIS IS RESULTING IN
INCREASING LARGE SCALE DOWNWARD FORCING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
THUS THE ENDING OF OUR EARLIER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME CLEARING HAS
WORKED INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER...BUT LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS
THE UPPER PENINSULA.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING...WITH INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION STARTING THIS
MORNING...AND MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.  WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BE
JUST WEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: EARLY CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH
WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  POSSIBILITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

TODAY...A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TO START THE DAY...ALONG WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER.  LOWER CLOUD
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO THIN WITH TIME THIS MORNING...BUT WILL BE
REPLACED BY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ALTOCUMULUS.  INTERESTING
SIGNAL IN THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN/POSSIBLY INTO THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE ALONG LEADING
EDGE OF WEAKER STATIC STABILITY.  THE IMPLICATION IS A THICKENING
CLOUD BAND DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION (AT LEAST ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...MAY BE MORE OF A VIRGA
STORM THE FARTHER SOUTH BELOW THE BRIDGE ONE GOES).  PRECIP TYPE
COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW WITH A SHALLOW SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER AND
EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL.  SHOULD BE A DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS NEAR 40 ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH LOWER-MID 50S
ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG UPSTREAM COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AS PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS
"BENDS" ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA.  SREF QPF PROBABILITIES SHOWING
SOME INTERESTING POTENTIAL WITH DECENT PROBABILITIES OF 0.25-0.50
INCH LIQUID ACROSS CHIPPEWA COUNTY IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME.
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT SHOULD
TEND TO SWITCH PRECIP TOWARD MORE LIQUID...THOUGH EARLY-MID EVENING
STILL COULD SEE SNOW OR POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN ACROSS FAR
EASTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE FLIRTING WITH
THE FREEZING MARK.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS...COULD BE SOME SNEAKY
WET SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL IF THINGS COME TOGETHER.
MEANWHILE...SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET 60+KTS WILL FOCUS ON MICHIGAN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS
TILTING TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN.  THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO ANY REMNANTS OF CONVECTION ALONG
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ARRIVES...AND WILL RUN THIS POTENTIAL ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.  WINDS EXPECTED TO BE
GUSTY FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT...WILL BE PRETTY STABLE SO
WON`T BE TAPPING INTO THE 60+KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED
TO BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BUT ENOUGH MECHANICAL MIXING TO ALLOW FOR
GUSTS 20-30MPH (AND HIGHER ALONG NORTHWEST LOWER LAKESHORE).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS A THREAT FOR SOME SMALL HAIL (HEY IT IS
APRIL AFTER ALL). INTENTLY WATCHING PESKY SECONDARY WAVE POTENTIAL
LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT THERE COULD BE
A CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR AT LEAST PART OF NORTHERN LOWER.

WELL NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WE SURVIVED THE 6TH MONTH OF WINTER AS
MARCH HAS COME TO A CLOSE. THAT MEANS IT`S TIME TO TURN OUR
ATTENTION TO WARMER WEATHER AND SPRING-LIKE THOUGHTS...AND INDEED
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE JUST SUCH CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AND THERE`S
ALWAYS A HOWEVER HERE IN THE NORTHERN LAKES...DON`T GET USED TO IT
WITH A SOLID TREND TOWARD WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE AGAIN INTO
FRIDAY AND BEYOND. YUCK! OH WELL...LET`S GET TO IT...

OUR WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MAKE ITS
APPROACH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE TENDING TO
SLOW ITS PASSAGE BY A FEW HOURS INTO THE MIDDAY PERIOD. ALMOST
LOOKING LIKE MORE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SITUATION AROUND 18Z
FOLLOWED BY THE "TRUE" COLD FRONT INTO THE EVENING...OF COURSE
USHERING IN OUR NEXT SHOT OF COOLER WEATHER. FROM A MOISTURE
STANDPOINT...STILL LOOKS OUTSTANDING WITH AN AXIS OF 1+" PWATS
ROLLING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT PROVIDED
BY A MODEST AXIS OF LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BUT ALSO
HIGHLY TIED TO A RESPECTABLE ENTRANCE REGION JET CIRCULATION WORKING
BASICALLY OVERHEAD. AXIS OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
NATURALLY TEND TO DESTABILIZE THINGS...WITH ELEVATED CAPE VALUES
PERHAPS PUSHING 600 J/KG OR SO IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

COUPLE THAT WITH ROBUST BULK SHEAR PROFILES UP IN THE 50 KNOT RANGE
AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS...AND STILL HAVE TO BELIEVE THERE IS A SHOT
WE COULD THROW OUT SOME SMALLER HAILSTONES FROM ANY HEAVIER CORES.
THE ONLY THING LACKING IS SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SO DON`T SEE ANY
REAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. TEMPS TRICKY IN THIS SETUP...WITH
EASTERN AREAS LIKELY TO BREAK OUT WELL INTO THE 50S TO EVEN LOWER
60S AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE STEADIER RAINS/CLOUDS PROBABLY
HOLD NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS DOWN IN THE 40S...PROBABLY EVEN
DIPPING INTO THE 30S LATER IN THE DAY WITH SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION
AND ENHANCEMENT FROM THE COLD LAKE WATERS. SPEAKING OF SUCH
THINGS...MIGHT BE DEALING WITH SOME DENSE FOG ISSUES FOR A TIME
GIVEN EXPECTED WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 40S
OVER LOW/MID 30S WATER TEMPS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION.

LOOKING RATHER QUIET THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF FRIDAY AS SHARP
DRYING ALOFT ENTERS THE PICTURE WHILE WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING FOLDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND CANADIAN PRAIRIE. BIG
QUESTIONS THEN ARISE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH REGARD TO A
MORE ROBUST PIECE OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY EMANATING FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND LIFTING TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES. 12Z GUIDANCE
SUITE STRONGLY TRENDED THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL WAVE
CYCLONE NORTHWARD...TO THE POINT WHERE A BROADER PRECIP SHIELD MAY
WELL TRY TO OVERSPREAD PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER. NOT REALLY SURE I
AGREE WITH THIS IDEA GIVEN THE FLAT LOOK TO THE OVERALL FLOW (INDEED
00Z GUIDANCE IS TRENDING BACK SOUTH)...BUT IF ANY PLACE HAS A SHOT
IT WOULD BE AREAS CLOSER TO SAGINAW BAY...WITH SUFFICIENT COLD AIR
INTACT OVER THE AREA TO DRIVE A MAINLY ALL SNOW EVENT. NOT READY TO
PUT ALL MY EGGS IN THAT BASKET JUST YET (POOR EASTER JOKE...SORRY)
BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS AS OUR WAVE IS MUCH BETTER SAMPLED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE ROLL THROUGH EASTER WEEKEND AND
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK NORTHERN STREAM
WAVES EXPECTED INITIALLY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY A MUCH MORE
ROBUST SYSTEM BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. HONESTLY HAVE TO ADMIT THAT MY
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF WEAKER SYSTEMS
THIS WEEKEND WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY NOTED. HOWEVER...GIVEN
OUR RECENT PROPENSITY FOR THESE TIGHT GRADIENT SYSTEMS TO OVER
PERFORM (I.E. LAST NIGHT`S SNOWFALL)...HAVE TO REALLY WATCH THESE AS
THEY APPROACH. AT THE MOMENT...STILL LOOKING LIKE ONE WEAK WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAKISH FGEN WILL SKIRT THE AREA LATER SATURDAY...WITH
ANOTHER ONE NOW ADVERTISED INTO SUNDAY. THERMALLY SPEAKING...LOOKS
CHILLY ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BUT LOTS OF TIME TO FINE TUNE
THOSE DETAILS.

BIGGER STORY MAY END UP BEING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED HINTS
OF FAIRLY STRONG PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS LIFTING A WARM FRONT UP TOWARD
THE LOWER LAKES...ALL WHILE THE COLD AIR HANGS TOUGH JUST TO OUR
NORTH. THAT SHOULD PUT THE SQUEEZE PLAY ON NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH
SEVERAL BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ALONG A RATHER TIGHT
GRADIENT. NOT SURPRISINGLY IN THIS SETUP...MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH THE BEST GRADIENT/FGEN RESPONSE...WHICH WILL
HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON WHAT TYPE(S) OF WEATHER NORTHERN MICHIGAN
EXPERIENCES. IT COULD BE ANYTHING FROM CONVECTION TO MIXED PRECIP
(FREEZING RAIN?) TO EVEN JUST PLAIN SNOW...OR ALL OF THE ABOVE.
HISTORICALLY...THIS TYPE OF SETUP HAS BEEN KNOWN TO PRODUCE SOME
DECENT LATE SEASON SNOWS UP THIS WAY BUT LOTS OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
ALL UNFOLD. OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS THE FACT THAT TEMPS WILL AGAIN
BE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AND
MOVES THROUGH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING WINDS. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AT SOME POINT
BETWEEN MID MORNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

SYNOPTIC WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCAL DIFFERENTIAL HEATING EFFECTS WILL IMPACT WIND
WITHIN INDIVIDUAL NEARSHORE ZONES WITH A TENDENCY TOWARD AN
ONSHORE COMPONENT (OR AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WE TEND TO SEE ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON AND THROUGH THE STRAITS WITH STRONG CROSS-
ISOBARIC FLOW). SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR WHITEFISH
BAY/ST. MARY`S RIVER AND FOR NORTHWEST LOWER LAKE MICHIGAN
NEARSHORE ZONES...WITH EXPECTED ISSUANCE IN OTHER AREAS TONIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SULLIVAN


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