Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 020331
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1131 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1131 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE FEEDING COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO THE UPPER
ST MARYS VALLEY...RESULTING IN A SLOW DESCENT OF SURFACE TEMPS
(AND ONLY A SLOW CLIMB IN DEW POINTS EVEN AS PRECIP CONTINUES).
AUTOMATED EQUIPMENT AT SAULT MI HAS GONE OVER TO -FZRA WITH A
TEMP OF 33F. THE HUMAN OBSERVER AT SAULT ONTARIO HAS GONE FROM
SN/RA TO JUST RA (NOT FREEZING)...AND 32F. ROAD SURFACE TEMPS AT
LAST CHECK IN THE AREA WERE 37F...SO THERE IS NO RISK FOR ICING ON
THE GROUND. BUT PERHAPS ELEVATED SURFACES COULD PICK UP A TINY BIT
OF GLAZE BEFORE PRECIP BECOMES LESS WIDESPREAD. HAVE THUS ADDED
A MENTION OF FZRA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE IMMEDIATE
SAULT/SUGAR ISLAND AREA ONLY. (ONLY A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...KINROSS
HAS A SURFACE DEW POINT OF 34F...AND IS THUS QUITE SAFE FROM
FZRA.)

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1014 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

WOW...THE WARM SECTOR! ALMOST FORGOT SUCH A THING EVEN EXISTED.

AREA OF MORE VIGOROUS SHOWERS NOW MOVING INTO EASTERN UPPER
MI...SUSTAINED AT THE NOSE OF A 50-60KT 850MB JET. SURFACE TEMPS
ARE STILL ONLY IN THE MID 30S IN MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER...AND SAULT
ONTARIO IS REPORTING A RA/SN MIX AS OF 10PM. RISK OF MIXED PRECIP
SHOULD ONLY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 1-3 HRS...BEFORE 850MB TEMPS
SURGE INTO THE MID/UPPER SINGLE DIGITS C.

THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL TAKE 2-3 HOURS TO CROSS EASTERN
UPPER/STRAITS REGION...WITH A BACK EDGE NOW PUSHING JUST EAST OF
MUNISING. HOWEVER...ANY BREAK WILL ALSO BE TEMPORARY...WITH THE
NEXT AREA OF CONVECTION NOW PUSHING INTO FAR WESTERN UPPER MI. MAY
BE ABLE TO DIMINISH POPS SOMEWHAT IN EASTERN UPPER IN THE
EARLY/MID OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN VERY LATE. A
NON-ZERO CHANCE OF THUNDER UP THAT WAY WITH THAT LATER BATCH...NAM
BRINGS IN ABOUT 250J/KG OF MUCAPE. BUT RISK SEEMS SMALL ENOUGH TO
NOT INCLUDE...TSRA UPSTREAM ARE GENERALLY ASSOCIATED WITH MUCAPES
CLOSER TO 500J/KG.

PLUME OF INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL ONLY REACH W CENTRAL
AND SW LOWER MI BY DAYBREAK. HI-RES MODELS DO TEND TO DEVELOP
SOME CONVECTION IN THIS AIRMASS...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL
BAND...BUT ARE NOT INCLINED TO BRING IT THIS FAR NORTH. WILL
GENERALLY LIMIT POPS S OF M-68 OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A
SMALL CHANCE (AND A THUNDER MENTION) ROUGHLY S OF TVC AND W OF
HTL.

A VERY MILD NIGHT AHEAD (AWAY FROM THE COLD LAKES) WITH STRONG
WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS. WILL RAISE TEMPS A BIT IN NW
LOWER MI.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

...RAIN (MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW) EASTERN UPPER AND CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN LOWER...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WITH 994 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER OF NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.

SURFACE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER AND THE STRAITS REGION THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN END OF BEST F-
GEN/Q-VECTOR FORCING APPEARS TO JUST SCRAP EASTERN UPPER. MODELS
HAVE THIS REGION PEGGED FOR BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT (WITH A HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS
OF AN INCH NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE NORTH). AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
TYPE GOES...MODEL SOUNDINGS LEAVE ROOM FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING
PROCESSES TO COOL THE COLUMN ENOUGH FOR A MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO
ALL SNOW BEFORE WARMER AIR TAKES. THEREFORE...HAVE ALLOWED FOR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY THIS EVENING WITH
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL
RAIN. ELSEWHERE...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION TO GENERATE ANY POSSIBLE RAINFALL. CONVECTION HAS JUST
INITIATED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN (IN
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL JET). MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES A ROBUST 7.5 C/KM. THIS
SETUP WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT TIME. LOWS TONIGHT ONLY RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 40S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

...MILD WITH SPRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER THEN TURNING
COOLER AGAIN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MS VALLEY THURSDAY WILL PUSH EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING SPRING WARMTH AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY AND
PROVIDES A CHANCE FOR SNOW.

THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SW FLOW WILL BE IN FULL FORCE EARLY
THURSDAY...AND WILL BRING SPRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION /AS PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.00 IN BY MIDDAY/. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A
NICE PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE JUST OFF THE SURFACE...AND WITH
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MUCAPES WILL NEAR 500 J/KG BY MID
MORNING OVER PARTS OF NRN LOWER MI WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS.
COLD FRONT OVER WI AT 12Z WILL SWING EWD INTO LOWER MI BY 18Z...
AND THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING AS
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 250 MB JET MOVES OVERHEAD AND PRODUCES AN
ORGANIZED POCKET OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT. BOTTOM LINE...PLENTY OF
THINGS COMING TOGETHER TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER. OVERALL EVOLUTION AND TIMING SHOWN BY
NAM/GFS ARE SIMILAR...AND SUGGESTS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO QUICKLY
INCREASE BY MID MORNING OVER WRN AND NRN AREA...AND BY AFTERNOON
FOR ERN AREAS. WILL BE HARD TO STRICTLY RULE OUT A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDER EVEN EARLY IN THE DAY AREA WIDE GIVEN LLJ FORCING
AND POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION. A FEW BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE
ANY SEVERE WEATHER. THERE MAY BE A FEW PEAKS OF SUN EARLY OVER
ERN AREAS...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA
BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT...THOUGH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
COME THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD
PREVENT PRECIP /THOUGH THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IF
FORCING INCREASES/. SECONDARY FRONT WILL BE EAST OF AREA FRIDAY...
WITH ONLY NW FLOW AND CAA EXPECTED. COLD AIR WON/T BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ANY LAKE PROCESSES /IT IS APRIL AFTERALL/...WITH JUST PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 30S TO MID 40S.

SATURDAY...GENERAL TROUGHINESS ALOFT WILL PERSIST...ALONG WITH COOL
WEATHER CONDITIONS. MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SW
SUPPORTING SOME WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. SO A CHANCE FOR SNOW /MIXED
WITH RAIN?/ SEEMS WARRANTED BY MIDDAY - ESPECIALLY OVER NRN AREAS.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE 30S TO AROUND 40.


&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

A FAIRLY ACTIVE END TO THE EASTER WEEKEND RIGHT ON INTO NEXT WEEK IS
EXPECTED AS AN INITIAL NORTHERN-STREAM WAVE POTENTIALLY FOLLOWED BY
A MUCH MORE ROBUST AND MOISTURE-RICH SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
IMPACTS THE AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS RATHER LOW ON HOW EXACTLY THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WILL PLAY OUT. AT THIS POINT...A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS MICHIGAN WITH A SECONDARY WAVE NOW
ADVERTISED TO RIDE ALONG THAT ZONE BRINGING FRONTOGENETICALLY
DRIVEN PRECIP TO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA FOR EASTER SUNDAY.
THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX (IF NOT ALL
SNOW... DEPENDENT ON INTENSITY). STILL SEVERAL DAYS TO WATCH HOW
THIS WAVE DEVELOPS...ITS PLACEMENT...AND ULTIMATELY TO IRON OUT
THE SPECIFICS.

ON TO NEXT WEEK...GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN SUPPORT OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON MONDAY OVER THE PLAINS...SLIDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK. AS CYCLOGENESIS GETS UNDER WAY...A WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TOWARD THE CWA...POTENTIALLY BRINGING
SEVERAL BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION FROM AS EARLY AS MONDAY ALL THE WAY
TO THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. BEING 5+ DAYS AWAY...THE TYPICAL
UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY
DRASTICALLY IN TIME (AS MUCH AS 36 HOURS) AND PLACEMENT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE. AS IT SITS NOW...THE SPECTRUM OF
POSSIBILITIES IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN
INCLUDE ANYTHING FROM RAIN/THUNDER TO FREEZING RAIN/WINTRY MIX TO
ALL SNOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND MADE A MENTION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE LATEST HWO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

LLWS TONIGHT. MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR AT TIMES TOMORROW IN
SHRA/PERHAPS TSRA.

FOR ONCE...NORTHERN LOWER MI FINDS ITSELF IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PRESENTLY NEAR INTL FALLS MN. THE WARM AIR
WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG...AS A COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY. A FEW SHRA COULD GRAZE BY PLN TONIGHT...WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO THE NORTH. SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA ARE LIKELY AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HAVE NOT EXPLICITLY INCLUDED TS
IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT...BUT SOMETHING TO BE AWARE OF.
CERTAINLY...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES IN SHRA. BRIEF IFR
POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHRA.

SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT/THU MORNING...VEERING NW IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERABLE LLWS TONIGHT...WITH SCREAMING SW-ERLIES JUST OFF THE
DECK.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS
ALL MARINE NEARSHORE ZONES. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY OUT
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...SO SMALL CRAFTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY...WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE
MARGINAL NORTHWEST WINDS FOR HEADLINES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...SULLIVAN


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