Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 042039
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
339 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

AT 3 PM...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM CHICAGO TO KANSAS
CITY. NORTH OF THIS FRONT...DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 60S AS FAR NORTH
AS CENTRAL IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. NORTH OF THIS AREA...NORTH
AND NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE LOWERED DEW POINTS INTO THE 30S AND 40S.

FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER NEBRASKA...WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH
IOWA...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY. WHILE THE 925 AND 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WEAK...STRONG 900 TO 500 MB
FRONTOGENESIS WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
WITH BOTH THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR BEING VERY WEAK AND MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE LESS THAN 500 J/KG...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER.

ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE ARW AND NMM SUGGEST THAT
THE AREA WILL BECOME DRY. MEANWHILE MANY OF THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS
SUGGEST THAT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. WAS
VERY TEMPTED TO LEAN TOWARD THE MESO MODELS. HOWEVER CONSENSUS WAS
MORE TOWARD THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS...SO WENT TOWARD THEM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE 04/12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE AHEAD OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH. THIS WILL HELP THE WARM FRONT TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH THE BEST 925 MB AND 850 MB MOISTURE ADVANCING
QUICKLY NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...NOT AS SEEING MUCH CONVERGENCE
OUTSIDE OF THE WARM FRONT ITSELF. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRY WEATHER IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH WEAK 0-3 KM AND
0-6 KM SHEAR...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE REGION. MOST UNSTABLE CAPES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. WHILE THE 0-6 KM
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK...THE 0-3 KM SHEAR DOES CLIMB UP TO 30
KNOTS....SO MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DAMAGING
WINDS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARM SECTOR
WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE
0-6 KM SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. THUS NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE KRST/KLSE TAF SITES WITH VFR
CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL START TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT...FOR AN INCREASE IN VFR/MVFR CLOUD COVER
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER 09Z. LOOKS LIKE KLSE WILL REMAIN VFR
WITH BASES AOA 4KFT WHILE KRST DETERIORATES INTO THE 2.5-3KFT
RANGE. APPEARS DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE TODAY/TONIGHT WILL
LIMIT NORTHWARD INFLUX OF THE SHRA...SO KEPT VCSH IN THE BODY OF
THE TAFS IN THE 09-18Z TIME FRAME FOR NOW. PLAN ON INCREASING
SHRA/TS CHANCES GOING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. APPEARS CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN VFR/MVFR AT KLSE/KRST RESPECTIVELY THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH VSBY MAY BE REDUCED IN SHRA/TS ACTIVITY. MORE
DETAIL WILL BE PROVIDED WITH THE 05.00Z TAF ISSUANCE.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...DAS



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