Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 241130
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
630 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

RAIN IS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING.  THE AREA OF RAIN EXTENDS BACK ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...IN A SOMEWHAT SCATTERED NATURE.  THIS
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA.  THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY...THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.  THIS WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND CLOUDY TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME AND EVENING...THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.  MAX
TEMPS TODAY TO ONLY RISE INTO THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE WITH ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW.  SATURDAY THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA THAT ALONG WITH
THE EASTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A LOW OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI
THAT WE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.  TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN COOL...BUT NOT AS
COOL AS TODAY WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN
TO EMERGE MONDAY NIGHT. THE GEM/DGEX KEEPS THE REGION DRY WITH
RIDGING NEARBY. THE GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MN WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH A
SFC LOW OVER WESTERN MN WITH A LARGER QPF SIGNAL. HAVE USED A
BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN POPS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. THE PTYPE WILL BE LIQUID WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. THE GFS WASHES OUT
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF CRUISES BY
WITH NO ADDITIONAL RAIN. THE ECMWF HAS A DEEPER/STRONGER UPPER TROF
SLOW DOWN AS IT REACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SFC
LOW THE ECMWF FEATURED MONDAY NIGHT HAS WASHED OUT...BUT WITH THE
TROF OVERHEAD...CONTINUES TO PUMP OUT RAIN. AS A COMPROMISE...WILL
HAVE LOW POPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY
NIGHT HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHILE
THE UPPER TROF DEPARTS. NEXT UPPER TROF CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD AS IT
DROPS FROM ONTARIO INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE A SMALL POP
OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AS A RESULT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
NEXT UPPER TROF TO AFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HAVE USED A BLEND
FOR POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR AT THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST. SOME SHOWERS WERE IN THE VCNTY
OF BRD AND HAVE A MENTION. EXPECT THE RAIN TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF
THE MN TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING. THE RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTERNOON AT HYR...BUT HAVE VCSH BEGINNING AT 18Z AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ACTUAL START TIME AT HYR. MVFR CIGS WITH THE
RAIN. A TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE AND BR IS POSSIBLE AT DLH/HIB/INL
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST. IFR CIGS/VSBYS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  32  43  29 /  70  70  20   0
INL  49  32  52  27 /  50  50  10   0
BRD  46  36  51  30 /  60  60  20   0
HYR  48  34  51  27 /  60  70  20   0
ASX  46  33  43  28 /  50  60  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF






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