Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 200533
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1233 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

WILL BE MAKING SOME UPDATES TO FORECAST IN THE NEXT HOUR TO MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE MANITOBA LAKES REGION
AT 18Z. A LONG WAVE TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW EXTENDED SOUTH TO
OKLAHOMA. PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTING NWD FROM THE TROF ARE
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ATTM AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM
NORTH CENTRAL TO SE MN AT 18Z. AS THOSE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
ENERGY ROTATE TOWARD THE AREA THEY WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE VCNTY OF
AND TO THE EAST OF THE LOW. WILL SEE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER NE MN
INTO NW WI THROUGH 06Z. AFTER 06Z...THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO NEAR THE BORDER OF
LAKE OF THE WOODS AND CANADA. MUCH COLDER AIR BEGINS TO BE DRAWN
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BEST UVM IS FOUND OVER THE
ARROWHEAD INTO NW WI. RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO THIS AREA. WILL BE A
BREAK IN THE PCPN OVER THE REST OF THE REGION. NO LONGER EXPECTING
SNOW TONIGHT AND HAVE REMOVED.

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WAFFLES AROUND NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS IN
THE MORNING...THEN MOVES TO NE MN IN THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE
SFC LOW LIFTS NWD INTO ONTARIO. NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION ON MONDAY
WILL RESULT IN THE PTYPE STAYING LIQUID. BEST FORCING REMAINS OVER
THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD INTO NW WI AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS/QPF THERE
AS A RESULT. BY AFTERNOON...FORCING THAT WAS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND
NW WI EXITS WHILE THE NEXT ROUND OF UVM ARRIVES FROM THE NW. HAVE
POPS THAT SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON WHILE SLOWLY DECREASING OVER THE EAST. WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...EXPECT PTYPE TO BE ALL LIQUID AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION
OF SNOW FOR THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHLAND THROUGH
MID WEEK...GRADUALLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND INTO MIDWEEK...THEN IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY.

WE HAVE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND ALONG THE SNOWBELT REGION OF ASHLAND/IRON
COUNTIES. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY OCCUR EARLY MONDAY EVENING AND BECOME MORE
LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS OCCUR.
SNOWFALL FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES. SOME MELTING WILL
LIKELY OCCUR AS WELL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATION
WILL BE ON GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS THE BORDER REGION INTO THE
ARROWHEAD.

THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MID-LATE
WEEK LOOSENING ITS IMPACT ON THE REGION. WE CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR
RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT DROP POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...ESPECIALLY IN THE ARROWHEAD AND IN FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER IN THE
WEEK AND BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO MOST AREAS INTO THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH A
SLOW MODERATING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

AREA OF RAIN WITH IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES AFFECTING
MAINLY KHYR AND KDLH AS OF 06Z...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR
VISIBILITIES AT REMAINING SITES. THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 15Z...WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR CELINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES AT
KDLH AND KHYR AS WELL. AFTER 15Z ALL SITES EXPECTED TO HAVE MVFR
CEILINGS WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15-20KT RANGE WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 30KTS. WINDS TO REMAIN IN THE 15-20KT RANGE AFTER 00Z
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING AGAIN...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MVFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  41  27  42 /  60  50  20  10
INL  29  41  24  42 /  70  60  20  10
BRD  33  45  30  45 /  40  50  10  10
HYR  32  41  27  43 /  50  50  20  10
ASX  33  42  28  43 /  60  60  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE









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