Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 310005
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
705 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HAVE SENT OUT AN UPDATE FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION...DUE TO LATEST TRENDS. UNDER THE PRECIPITATION BAND
IT IS MUCH COOLER WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE...AND HAVE
MADE ADJUSTEMENTS TO NEXT FEW HOURS OF TEMPERATURES.

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 300PM...THERE WAS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE FAR EASTERN
DAKOTAS NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED NORTH
FROM THE LOW TO ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN MANITOBA. MUCH
OF THE NORTHLAND HAD CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
THERE WAS LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA
ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH A LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL BAND.
TEMPERATURES WERE MUCH WARMER AND SKIES MUCH CLEARER OFF TO THE
WEST...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IN THE DAKOTAS.

THE WEAK LOW IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
SE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE SE AND E...BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION TO A LITTLE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
AFTER SUNSET. THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA OR DIMINISH BY LATE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE LOW IN MANITOBA WILL MOVE SE AND CROSS NEAR THE
ARROWHEAD/ONTARIO BORDER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS LOW
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE ARROWHEAD LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. MELTING WILL HELP LIMIT THE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT PARTS OF THE FAR EASTERN ARROWHEAD COULD GET
UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. THE DULUTH AREA
COULD GET A LIGHT DUSTING.

TUESDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY SUNNY FOR MOST AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND
WITH COOL NW FLOW. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S...EXCEPT IT WILL BE CLOUDIER AND COOLER IN THE EASTERN
ARROWHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK...BECOMING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
WHEN SHOWERS POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE A
TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS THROUGH THE MID-WEEK AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND THE
REGION WILL BE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...WARMER WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. INSTABILITY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER IS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. WHILE WARM MOIST AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DRY AIR
FOR SHOWERS TO OVERCOME...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND TO FOCUS
PRECIP TIMING ON LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO INCLUDED
FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE/ARROWHEAD DUE TO THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DUE TO WINDS OFF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF
THE SOUTH...10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...EXCEPT
ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING
WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH WITH DEEP MIXING WELL ABOVE 700MB. WITH
THIS DEEP MIXING EXPECT RH VALUES TO DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN DRIER
CONDITIONS...WHICH MAY LEAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MAY SEE LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOP ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 IN
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WARMER
IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. COLORADO LOW
DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO A MILD START
TO THE WORK WEEK FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT TOO EARLY TO TELL AT
THIS POINT WITH THE SPREAD OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS KDLH AND KHYR AS OF 00Z BRINGING MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
IT MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LINGERING
MVFR CEILINGS AT BOTH LOCATIONS. THE OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KINL
GENERALLY BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z...ALSO WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. IT MAY ALSO TEMPORARILY AFFECT KHIB AND KDLH...WHILE
THE OTHER LOCATIONS REMAIN VFR. AFTER 15Z NORTHWEST WINDS TO PICK
UP AND BLOW AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER 21Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34  51  29  58 /  70  10   0  40
INL  35  49  30  63 /  40  10  10  10
BRD  34  58  37  67 /  20   0   0  10
HYR  33  53  30  64 /  60   0   0  50
ASX  33  51  27  61 /  70  20   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...LE








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