Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 271114
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
614 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE RELATIVELY
WARM AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH CLOUD COVER
INCREASING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION MOST
OF TODAY WITH QUIET WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM
INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S WITH PLENTY OF SUN. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT IN THE MORNING...BUT BECOME OCCASIONALLY BREEZY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES EWD AND A WEAK PRES GRADIENT SETS
UP OVER NE MN.

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM NW TO SE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY EVENING HOURS TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER S/W MOVE IN ACROSS NRN MN. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS DEFINITELY BACKED OFF ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH AROUND OR LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. THE FRONT APPEARS TO WASH OUT AS
IT MOVES EWD INTO THE WRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NRN WI AREA...WHICH WILL
ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH LATE
IN THE DAY TUESDAY OVER NRN MN.

TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN MILD IN MINNESOTA WITH
CLOUD COVER AND WAA IN THE MID LEVELS KEEPING LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HOWEVER TO THE EAST IN WISCONSIN...LESS CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR LS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING ARE BUILDING IN THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH A CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPS SWD THROUGH
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY AND EXPECT NO PCPN
AND ONLY SOME CLOUD COVER AS RIDGING REMAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW DEPARTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGING
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE RIDGING PREVAILS ON THURSDAY. MODEL
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO REVEAL THEMSELVES THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
MAINTAINS THE RIDGING WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE
ALLOWING SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO CROSS THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE IGNORED
THE GFS. AT THE SFC...A FRONT MOVES TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY. USED A COMPROMISE OF THE GEM/ECMWF FOR
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS BEHIND THE OTHER
MODELS ON FRIDAY WITH ITS HANDLING OF THE FRONT. THE ECMWF/GEM PUSH
THE FRONT TO THE EAST. A COMPROMISE OF THE SOLUTIONS RESULTS IN POPS
OVER THE AREA. THE GFS FINALLY MOVES THE FRONT EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS HAVE A QUASI ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FAST FLOW WILL ALLOW A SHORT WAVE TO CLIP
THE CANADIAN BORDER. A BLEND OF MODELS WAS USED AS A RESULT FOR POPS
FRIDAY NIGHT. NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN COMES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS SHORT WAVES MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER IN THE ZONAL
FLOW. ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS FOUND ON SUNDAY AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT INL WHERE MVFR
CIGS WITH LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE BY 09Z WHEN THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  37  64  40 /   0   0  20   0
INL  69  43  63  36 /   0  30  10   0
BRD  70  42  65  39 /   0  20  20   0
HYR  64  33  65  38 /   0   0  20   0
ASX  57  30  64  36 /   0   0  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF






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