Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 141955
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
355 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

.SHORT TERM... TONIGHT

AFOREMENTIONED WEAKLY CONFLUENT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
COMBINATION WITH BOTH DIFFERENTIAL GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT REBOUND AND
THE STABLE LAKE AGGREGATE WILL ALLOW THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO PUSH STEADILY EASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAIN OBSERVATIONAL TREND TODAY HAS BEEN A
FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE NORTHWARD PUSH OF OPAQUE VEIL OF HIGH CLOUD CIRRUS
INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SATELLITE SHOWS ONGOING SHEARING OF
THIS HIGH CLOUD WITH SOME THINNING AND SUSPECT THIS HIGH CLOUD TO
EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. LOW DEWPOINTS AND HIGH
PRESSURE SUPPORT CHILLY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH ALL LOCATIONS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S...SUB FREEZING IN THE THUMB.

&&

.LONG TERM...

THE AREA WILL STAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE SHOWERS
COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE FOR THURSDAY.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING OFF TO THE
EAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK WAVE
WILL APPROACH THE CWA FROM THE SOUTH BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND ROUND
OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.  LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING WEAK DYNAMICS AND LOW
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.  EVEN THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS REMAIN WEAK WITH THIS.  ONE THING THE WAVE DOES HAVE GOING
IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AS IT WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTH.  PWAT
VALUES ON THE LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW VALUES AROUND 1 INCH ON THURSDAY.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  AS CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVE IN BY
THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY STAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK RIDING STARTS BUILDING IN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AREA.

AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...CLOUD COVER DECREASES
AND HIGH TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
SATURDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD ARE A TOSS
UP, AS THE MODELS HAVE GLARING INCONSISTENCIES. FOR NOW WILL TRACK
DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD AND KEEP AT LEAST SOME WEAK CHANCES OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE MARINE AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO WEDNESDAY.  A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 140 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TODAY. HIGH CLOUD HAS BEEN ROBUST IN ITS ABILITY TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA. MODEL DATA DOES SUGGEST THIS WILL THIN
OUT OR SETTLE BACK SOUTHWARD BY THE EVENING HOURS. PATTERN
RECOGNITION CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT INLAND PENETRATION OF LAKE
BREEZES IS LIKELY FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...HOWEVER DATA IS NOT PARTICULARLY BULLISH AT THIS TIME.
EXPECTING A PERIOD OF VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS WITH SKC TONIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....SS/DE
MARINE.......SS
AVIATION.....CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



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