Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 161929
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR TO DATE ARE EXPECTED BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 70S INLAND FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN BOTH DAYS. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY BRINGING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF RAIN. THAT WILL THEN BE
FOLLOWED BY AT LEAST A WEEK OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MAY
ONLY BE IN THE 40S ON A LEAST A FEW DAYS NEXT WEEK. IT WOULD NOT
BE OUT THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME WET SNOW MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS
THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS WILL THERE BE FOG TONIGHT? AT THIS POINT I
THINK DENSE FOG IS UNLIKELY SO I DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER... GIVEN THE RAIN TODAY AND CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION. THE PRIMARY DETERRENT TO A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF FOG
TONIGHT IS THE DRY AIR COMING BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS TRAILING THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN IN THIS
MORNING. THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ENOUGH DRY AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION TO MINIMIZE THE FOG THREAT. EVEN SO...THE AREAS THAT WOULD HAVE
THE HIGHEST RISK FOR FOG WOULD BE NORTH GRAND HAVEN AND WEST OF
US-131 WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRED THIS MORNING. THE OTHER
AREA WOULD BE IN THE AREA NEAR I-69 SINCE THE THAT AREA WILL SEE
THE DRIER AIR COME IN LATER.

OTHERWISE WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND THAT
WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE 1000/925 MB THICKNESS IS
EXPECTED THE THE WARMEST SO FAR THIS YEAR AND WOULD SUGGEST INLAND
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN... HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 70 TO 75. A WEAK
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THE COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FRONT IS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT SO SATURDAY
WILL ALSO BE RATHER WARM WITH A LIGHT EAST WIND.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN ON SUNDAY. A
CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL
BE VERY LITTLE TO NO SFC OR ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUNDAY. THEREFORE
THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS VERY LOW.

A SIGNIFICANT WX PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK AS UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR MOVES IN AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED
AND SHOWERY PATTERN WITH BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SOME WET SNOW FLAKES MAY MIX IN MID TO LATE WEEK ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
NORTHERN FCST AREA. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
AREAS OF LOW CLOUD COVER. LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO MAINLY VFR THIS EVENING BUT THE COMBINATION OF PARTIAL CLEARING
AND LIGHT WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL TODAY WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING FRIDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS UNTIL THE SYSTEM
MOVES IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1123 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

THE LONE ADVISORY AT MAPLE RAPIDS CONTINUES TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT.
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION TODAY SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN AFFECT ON
THE DROP THAT IS BEING EXPERIENCED. WE SHOULD SEE LEVELS DROP BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE THIS EVENING.

BEYOND TWO DRY DAYS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE PATTERN GETS A BIT
ACTIVE AGAIN. WE COULD SEE SOME BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION BETWEEN
SUNDAY AND TUESDAY. TOTAL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS ARE NOT TOO
HEAVY. SOME MINOR FLUCTUATIONS MAY RESULT ON AREA RIVERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT AT THIS POINT I DO NOT SEE ANY REAL CAUSE FOR
CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM





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