Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGRR 151513
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1113 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY MAY INCREASE FIRE DANGER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AFTER SHOWERS ON THURSDAY...A
WARM AND DRY STRETCH FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOKS LIKELY. SOME
RAIN RETURNS FOR LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

TWO MAIN ISSUES TO ADDRESS IN THE SHORT TERM. FIRST...BREEZY
CONDITIONS TODAY WILL INCREASE A RISK FOR SPREADABLE FIRES MAINLY
FOR DRY FUELS LIKE GRASS AND TREE LITTER AND PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL LOWER MI WHICH HAS BEEN DRYER THAN OTHER AREAS. PLEASE SEE
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR SPECIFICS. SECONDLY...THURSDAY LOOKS
TO BE A SHOWERY DAY WITH A LOW RISK FOR A THUNDERSTORM.

OVERALL...MODELS ARE ZONING IN ON A SHOWERY SETUP FOR THURSDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA NOW WITH A WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVING
IN ALBEIT WITH WEAK FORCING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING AT LEAST SOME SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM
SOUTH HAVEN TO GRR TO MT. PLEASANT DURING THE DAY. THIS IS WHERE
MODEL QPF IS HIGHEST. INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR THIS EVENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA GIVEN MODELS LOCKING IN ON THIS SCENARIO NOW. THE
RISK FOR THUNDER STILL LOOKS LOW TO ME AND I CONSIDERED REMOVING
MENTION OF IT ALTOGETHER...BASED ON NO CAPE TO BE FOUND ON ANY MODEL
SOUNDINGS. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM I SUPPOSE
IT IS POSSIBLE TO GET A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL NOT BE AS
WARM...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

EASTERLY WINDS TODAY ARE ALREADY UNDERWAY. USED THE HRRR THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE WINDS AND THEN A BLEND OF THE HI-RES WRF ARW
AND A SEPARATE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL BLEND FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM. LOOKS LIKE WINDS COULD STILL GUST IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE AT
TIMES TODAY.

FRIDAY LOOKS REALLY NICE. BUMPED HIGHS UP FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO 70.
A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP LAKESHORE
AREAS FROM HOLLAND TO THE NORTH SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MODEL CONSISTENCY IS GOOD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE MAIN UPSHOT
BEING THAT RAIN MOVES IN ON SUNDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR WET
WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SFC LOW AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS MOVES OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. THE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY WITH VORT ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH
LOWER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY. GIVEN WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS CRASHING TO
NEAR THE SFC...DO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE WET SNOW ACROSS AT LEAST
THE NORTHERN ZONES AT TIMES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. EAST WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS
MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS THEN DECREASE TO AOB 10
KNOTS BY THIS EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ACT TO KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS TO A MINIMUM. GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS LIKELY. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS WE
LOSE THE MIXING. WINDS WILL THEN LARGELY REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH GUSTING UP TO 25...ALONG WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND MIN RH READINGS AROUND 20% OR
EVEN LOWER IN PLACES WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAINLY FOR
ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS REGION HAS NOT
RECEIVED AS MUCH RAIN LATELY SO THE DRY FUELS LIKE GRASSES AND
TREE LITTER ARE MORE PREVALENT. PERSONS WITH BURN INTERESTS NEED
TO MONITOR FIRES CLOSELY TO PREVENT SPREADING GIVEN THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH BREEZES PICKING UP LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

DRY WEATHER THROUGH TODAY... THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN ON THURSDAY.
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE VERY LOW IN THE MAPLE RIVER
BASIN AND ZERO IN THE OTHER TWO BASINS CURRENTLY UNDER THE
ADVISORY. THIS WILL ALLOW THOSE RIVERS TO FALL BELOW BANKFULL OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
FIRE WEATHER...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.