Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 150356
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1156 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
EAST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ACT
TO KEEP MICHIGAN DRY. AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME SHOWERS MOVING IN.

WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMB TO OVER AN INCH. THETA E IS SHOWN TO DECREASE WITH
HEIGHT IN THE DGZ. LIFT IS NOTED AS WELL. ALOFT A SHORT WAVE WILL
BE TRACKING LOW LEVELS ARE SHOWN TO BE DRY...WHICH WILL LIKELY
DELAY AND LIMIT OVER QPF VALUES. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE
HIGHER PWAT VALUES...LIFT AND INSTABILITY...LOCATIONS FROM JACKSON
TO BATTLE CREEK SHOULD SEE THE MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY.  WILL
MAINTAIN THE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME INSTABILITY AROUND...MAINLY SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...WILL KEEP A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

I FEATURED THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORE FOR
WEDNESDAY. WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...THIS WILL ACT TO LIMIT THE
LAKE BREEZES ABILITY TO MOVE INLAND. COMMONLY THIS LEADS TO THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 131.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

GFS PHASES NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES
FRIDAY...WHICH RESULTS IN RAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY.  GFS
IS THE OUTLIER WITH THIS SOLUTION...SO HAVE GIVEN MORE WEIGHT TO THE
ECMWF/FIM/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS AND KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS ENERGY
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...AND RAIN COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT
IF THAT CONTINUES.

COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AND BEYOND.  BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES COULD LINGER WELL PAST
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE MID LEVEL LOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
ONTARIO AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

EAST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE... WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. ONLY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH BASES
ABOVE 12,000 FT.

RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z THURSDAY
WITH THE THREAT OF LOWER MVFR OR IFR CIGS LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER WINDS AND WAVES WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. ANY IMPACTS TO MARINERS WILL BE LIMITED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

THE COMBINATION OF VERY LOW DEWPOINTS...INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER RISK ON WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS THAT VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW
RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN ON THURSDAY.
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE VERY LOW IN THE MAPLE RIVER BASIN
AND ZERO IN THE OTHER TWO BASINS CURRENTLY UNDER THE ADVISORY. THIS
WILL ALLOW THOSE RIVERS TO FALL BELOW BANKFULL OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...MWS/NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
FIRE WEATHER...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS





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