Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 291613 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1113 AM CDT WED APR 29 2015

.UPDATE...

A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING CLOUDINESS TO THE STATE AND SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE IS VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...SO
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. NO CHANGES MADE
TO TODAY/S FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. DUE TO THE LARGE SCALE MID-LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...INCREASED SKY COVERAGE TO BROKEN IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. ALSO ADJUSTED CIGS TO 7K FT PER
RUC/HRRR SOUNDINGS. STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON...ENDING BY EARLY EVENING. ALSO...THERE MAY BE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN SE WI THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT
CHOSE TO LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO THE VERY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.

SKIES SHOULD SCATTER OUT FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT MUCH OF THE
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE BRINGS 2.5K FT CIGS AROUND 13Z WEDNESDAY AT THE
LAKESHORE SITES AS COLD AIR COMES DOWN THE LAKE AND BOOSTS THE
LOW- LEVEL RH. THEREFORE WILL BE INCLUDING MVFR CIGS AT MKE AND
ENW WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT WED APR 29 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

FOCUS SQUARELY ON VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW APPROACHING EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AS IT DROPS SOUTH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN/LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY
AND TONIGHT...NEARING THE INDIANA BORDER BY 12Z THURSDAY.

MODELS DEVELOP LIGHT QPF...TO VARYING DEGREES...THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIURNAL HEATING AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH ALIGNED THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD NE
WISCONSIN. LIFT AIDED BY CVA DRIVEN Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IN THE 500-
300MB LAYER.

WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS LIMITED TO A BAND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ON EITHER SIDE.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW 70 TO 100 J/KG OF CAPE SO WILL KEEP
MENTION OF THUNDER. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO WILL LIMIT QPF
TO AN AREAL AVERAGE UNDER 0.10 INCH...THOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
WHERE THUNDER DOES DEVELOP. WILL TAPER OFF POPS AS FORCING SAGS OUT
OF CWA BY MIDNIGHT.

COLD AIR COMING DOWN THE LAKE FASTER THAN OVER LAND ON NORTHEAST
WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL KEEP EASTERN CWA COOL
WITH 925 MB TEMPS HOLDING UP IN THE WEST ALONG WITH SOME EARLY SUN
HELPING TO GET HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG AND WEST OF A
BERLIN...MADISON TO JANESVILLE LINE. CONSENSUS LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...THOUGH COULD GO LOWER IF CLOUDS BREAK UP.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
SOUTHEASTWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THIS PERIOD...FROM NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS MOST PLACES THURSDAY...TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP IT COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE MILDER TEMPS SATURDAY DUE TO LESS CERTAINTY
IN THE WIND DIRECTION.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS ARE POINTING TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER BEGINNING
ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS...PARTICULARLY
IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A
BETTER COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.

MORE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
HIGHS COOLING BACK TOWARD NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION...BUT DRY
AIR BELOW 5K FEET WILL LIMIT PCPN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH A POTENTIAL OF SOME BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE...MAINLY THROUGH THE
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA. LINGERING SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES END BY 05Z FOR
CENTRAL AREAS.


FIRE WEATHER...

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL HOLD IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE
INLAND FROM THE LAKE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AND AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. FRIDAY
BRINGS ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE IT IS A DRY
FORECAST UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BSH
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DDV



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