Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 290827
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
327 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A QUICK HITTING AND VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA RIGHT AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING.  THIS FIRST BATCH OF
PRECIP WILL BE A FAIRLY NARROW BAND...LASTING ABOUT 3 HOURS. TEMP
PROFILES INITIALLY IN THE WEST SUGGEST IT WILL BE FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. PAVEMENT TEMPS FROM AREA DOT
PLATFORMS SHOW MOST SITES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. SO...IT COULD GET
SLICK FOR A SHORT TIME. THE WARM ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE ON RAPIDLY
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING. WE ARE PUSHING CLOSE TO
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT GIVEN THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS...THAT
WOULD BE TOUGH TO ACHIEVE. BUT...WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH. LOOK FOR WINDS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE AFTER
SUNRISE...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP
SHOULD REACH MADISON BY ABOUT 9 AM AND MILWAUKEE 10 TO 11 AM THIS
MORNING.

THERE COULD BE A DRY PERIOD FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FIRST BATCH OF
WARM ADVECTION/STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH. MORE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SOMEWHAT STEEP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD HIT THE LOWER TO MID 40S. THAT FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND KENOSHA BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. DRIER AIR PUSHES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...SHUTTING
DOWN THE PRECIP AND BRINGING RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES.

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE NOSE OF AN UPPER JET WILL TRACK ALONG THE
850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH CENTRAL WI MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENTLY FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED
TO OTHER MODELS AND BRINGS A SWATH OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE MKX
FORECAST AREA.

WINDS WILL SHIFT NNE ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. OTHERWISE... MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE 50S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING...
SO RAIN SHOULD BE DELAYED OVER SOUTHERN WI UNTIL WED NIGHT AND
LINGER INTO THURSDAY. THE ECWMF IS ACTUALLY MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
GFS... AND DOES NOT CLEAR PRECIP OUT OF SOUTHEAST WI UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY... SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. THE 00Z
ECMWF CAME IN DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI NOW- IT USED TO BRING A BIG
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CROSS WI ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES PER THE LATEST ECWMF... BUT I
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH WI COULD BRING A ROUND OF RAIN TO
SOUTHERN WI ON SUNDAY... BUT THE PLACEMENT IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.
THE RESULTING BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLING OVER CENTRAL WI HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING THIS AS OF THE 00Z RUN.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN QUICKLY. THE PRECIP SHOULD REACH MADISON BY 9
AM AND COULD INITIALLY BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BELOW FREEZING...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM QUICKLY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE VERY RAPIDLY AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING. THOSE PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND QUICKLY.  LOOK
FOR SOUTH WIND TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS REACHING
35KTS. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE PRECIP SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TAF SITES BY 10 TO
11 AM AND WILL BE ALL RAIN BY THAT TIME.  THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIP SHOULD LAST ABOUT 3 HOURS...THEN A LULL IS EXPECTED BEFORE
MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE ALL RAIN AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID 40S. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING MADISON AROUND 5 PM
AND MILWAUKEE/KENOSHA BY ABOUT 7 PM.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR LEVELS WITH THE FIRST ROUND OF
PRECIP THAT MOVES IN THIS MORNING...LIFTING TO MVFR LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY. LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP QUICKLY
THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE
GALES OF 35 TO 40KTS FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARD OPEN WATER.
WINDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT WITH A GALE WARNING
STARTING AT 10 AM AND CONTINUING THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE
THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST IN
THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ645-646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC


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