Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 010838
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
338 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

500 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER STATE AT 18Z TODAY AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE IS SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST WITH GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOPING IN TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW THAT DEEPENS
AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES
THEN CONSOLIDATES OVER EASTERN WINNIPEG TONIGHT.

WARM ADVECTION BRINGS 925 MB TEMPS UP TO +16C IN THE WEST AND 15C IN
THE EAST BY 00Z. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FAR WEST...AND
MID 60S IN CENTRAL SECTIONS WITH ONSHORE SERLY WINDS HOLDING HIGHS
IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE FAR EAST TO AROUND 60 IN THE KETTLE
MORAINE. IF MIXING UP TO 40+ KT WINDS AROUND 900 MB ON THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS OCCURS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WEST...IT COULD BRING A FEW
GUSTS CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

ALL MODELS ARE BRINGING PCPN INTO THE WRN CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
WITH A LEAD IMPULSE...WITH THE GFS FARTHEST EAST WITH QPF...THEN
BRING STRONGER SHORT WAVE ACROSS THURSDAY MORNING.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ON STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL KEEP
CONVECTION ELEVATED TONIGHT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 800 MB.
HOWEVER ELEVATED CAPE DOES NOT INCREASE UNTIL 03Z AND AFTER WITH
BETTER 850-700 MB MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
WILL TRIM BACK BEGINNING OF QPF UNTIL BETTER ELEVATED CAPE COMES
INTO FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WITH DEVELOPING
INVERSION PREVENTING MUCH INTRUSION OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW HAIL STONES. SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK
HAS KEPT MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE BACK TO THE WEST...JUST CLIPPING
THE FAR WEST-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE.

NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF IN TEMPS TONIGHT WITH OCCLUDED FRONT/SURFACE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER CWA AT 12Z THURSDAY.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SEEING A LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY LINGERING THURSDAY MORNING...SO
KEPT THUNDER MENTION GOING.

HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY...AS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
CLIP THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOME PRECIP. THE GFS AND NAM REMAIN FARTHER
SOUTH AND DRY FOR THIS PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY.

.SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

SHOULD BE DRY SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SITTING BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A PASSING LOW TO THE NORTH. COULD
THEN SEE SOME PRECIP AT TIMES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH A MAINLY STALLED FRONTAL ZONE.
THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST DUE TO SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL PLACEMENT
AND THUS TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE FRONT SNEAKS FARTHER
NORTH AS IN THE GFS...WOULD EXPECT MUCH MILDER TEMPS AND A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDER. THE SOUTHERN ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN PERSISTENT
WINDS OFF THE LAKE...COOLER TEMPS...AND LESS INSTABILITY.
CONTINUED THE DOWN THE MIDDLE APPROACH BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

AFTERNOON WINDS AND LOWER DEW POINTS HELPING TO PUSH CONDITIONS TO
NEAR-CRITICAL LEVELS TODAY. HOWEVER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE MARGINAL AND TEMPERATURES AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA SO WILL HANDLE MENTION IN FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
AND HWO FOR NOW. OFFICES TO THE WEST WILL BE CLOSER TO HEADLINE
LEVELS WITH STRONGER WINDS...HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION AND MARINE...THESE SECTIONS WILL BE ADDED SHORTLY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION/MARINE...REM
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DDV


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