Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 160828
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE RAIN ACROSS FAR EASTERN IL CONTINUES TO CREEP NORTH...TIED TO A
DECENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK.  THE ATMOSPHERE
IS STILL QUITE DRY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS PRECIP STILL HAS A
CHANCE TO CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST WI COUNTIES BETWEEN ABOUT 6-9 AM
THIS MORNING. IT THEN MOVES OFF AND WE SEE GRADUAL CLEARING AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AGAIN. LIGHT WINDS AND SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 WEST OF
MADISON...BUT THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IT COOLER CLOSE
TO LAKE MICHIGAN. OVERALL...VERY SIMILAR TEMPS TO YESTERDAY.

QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A REALLY NICE DAY. WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
ALLOW FOR A LIGHT WINDS AND A LAKE BREEZE. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER NEAR
THE LAKE AGAIN... BUT NOT BEFORE RISING INTO THE MID 60S. INLAND...
925MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 17C WHICH SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. EXPECT INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT WITH AN UPPER JET IN THE VICINITY AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE GFS AND NAM INTRODUCE QPF INTO SOUTHERN WI BY LATE FRI NIGHT...
BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE GIVEN THE PERSISTENT DRY EASTERLY
FLOW AND WEAK FORCING.

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF A LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL SLIDE DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. EXPECT
A PUSH OF COLDER AIR WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST FROM
THE LAKE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR THE LAKESHORE
AND 60S INLAND. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE 70 WELL INLAND IF THE COLD
FRONT GETS DELAYED.

A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE MIDWEST AND BECOME ABSORBED
INTO A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA/UPPER MIDWEST
ON SUNDAY. MODELS ARE TRENDING A LITTLE QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP
INTO WI SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR RAIN IN
SOUTHERN WI WILL BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE AND
LEADING SHORTWAVE TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THAT DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN MN BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS IN SOUTHERN WI WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE WEST ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. COLD AIR WILL WRAP INTO SOUTHERN WI
MONDAY AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE MAY SUPPORT SOME SNOW
SHOWERS MIXED WITH RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS NOW
THE COLDER MODEL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE
30S. THAT COLD UPPER LOW WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CLIP THE 3 SOUTHEAST WI TAF
SITES BETWEEN 12-14Z THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS ARRIVING WITH IT.
THOSE LOWER CIGS COULD LINGER THROUGH ABOUT NOON TODAY...THEN
CLEARING RETURNS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD. KMSN WILL LIKELY STAY VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD
AS THE MVFR CIGS WILL STAY TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10KTS AT
ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC


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