Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 271908
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
308 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO SRN JAMES BAY. TO THE E...A MID
LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST EXTENDS BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND WRAPS SOME MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE UPPER LAKES. AS OF 19Z...W EDGE OF THE STRATOCU DECK
FM THIS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW RUNS FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE FAR
ERN COUNTIES OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED INTO CENTRAL UPPER
MI THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH THE MID-LVL AND SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR EXCEPT
PARTLY CLOUDY EAST WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRES TROUGH AT
LEAST INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL MAXIMIZED DUE TO CALM WINDS UNDER AXIS OF SFC RIDGE AND PWATS
OF .25 INCH OR LESS. ELSEWHERE MIN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NRN
PLAINS BUT SHOW BEST Q-VECT CONV AND MID-LVL MOISTURE ASSOC WITH
SHORTWAVE GENERALLY LIFTING NORTH AND WEST OF UPPER MI. MODELS HINT
THAT PERHAPS THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA COULD SEE SOME
SPRINKLES/-SHRA TUE EVENING. BUT GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR MASS
ALREADY IN PLACE WL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST THROUGH 00Z WED BUT
REFLECT EXPECTED INCREASE IN MID-LVL CLOUDS ALONG WEAK COLD-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN GRIDS. HIGH TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST COULD REACH
INTO THE MID 60S...BUT DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS UNDER
WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER (IN THE 50S) ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES AND EAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

MODELS STILL SHOWING POOR AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY POSSIBLY SHIFTING THROUGH OR NEAR THE REGION
TUE INTO THU. THE 00Z/29 IS SHOWING THE MOST PRECIP AS A RESULT OF
SHOWING STRONGER ENERGY MORE DIRECTLY IMPACT THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE
GFS STILL ONLY SHOWS LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES OF RAIN TUE
EVENING...0.01-0.02 INCHES WED AFTERNOON...AND UP TO 0.15 INCHES
OVER THE FAR E LATE WED. LITTLE TO NO QPF SEEN FROM OTHER
MODELS...SO THE GFS IS MORE OF AN OUTLIER. THAT COMBINED WITH THE
FACT THAT THE LACK OF PRECIP HAS BEEN PERSISTENT LATELY...WILL NOT
INCLUDE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. OF COURSE...THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS DUE TO BOTH
AIRMASS TEMPS AND A PRECIP/CLOUD COVER. TUE WILL BE WARMER THAN WED
AND THU AS MODELS DO AT LEAST AGREE THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE COOLER
ON WED AND THU...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIP/EXACT TEMPS FRI THROUGH SUN AS
WELL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON FRI BEING BROKEN DOWN BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY/TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. THE 12Z/26 ECMWF SHOWS
LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES OF QPF ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT ON FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT OTHER MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS IDEA. GENERAL IDEA IS
THAT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETAKE CONTROL ON SAT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PRECIP CHANCES ARE HIGHER ON SUN AS THE ECMWF
BRINGS A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. THE
AIRMASS DEFINITELY BECOMES WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT HOW MUCH
AND WHEN THE WARMEST CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED IS CLOUDED BY MODEL
DISAGREEMENT/VARIABILITY. COULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S OVER THE
W HALF ON ONE OR TWO DAYS FRI THROUGH SUN...PROBABLY OCCURING ON SAT
IF IT DOES END UP BEING DRY/SUNNY AS CURRENTLY SHOWN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH DAYTIME LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DOMINATING WINDS AND WIND DIRECTIONS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS E ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL FALL OFF TO MOSTLY UNDER 10KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. ON
TUE...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW
PRES TROF THAT PASSES TUE NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...ANOTHER HIGH PRES
WILL RIDGE S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED/THU. AS
THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO THE UPPER LAKES WED...WINDS OVER ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY GUST TO NEAR 20KT ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER OVER THE W. WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES
THU INTO SAT...WIND SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER 15KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS



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