Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KMQT 180648
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
248 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED YET
AGAIN TODAY AS A SFC RIDGE IS OVER THE CWA. SHOULD SEE BRIEFLY GUSTY
WINDS TONIGHT RIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE N OF THE CWA. 6 HOUR SFC PRESSURE RISES
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10-12MB AS A 1026MB SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE
AREA BY SAT MORNING...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR WINDS TO GUST
TO 30-35MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. PEAK WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND
06Z...BUT WILL CALM DOWN TO BELOW 20MPH BY 12Z SAT.

SAT WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER AS THE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES. DID LOWER DEW POINTS
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SAT AS MIXING INTO VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR /DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS UP TO 50 DEGREES ALOFT/ WILL OCCUR. THIS BRING MIN
RH VALUES AGAIN INTO THE MID TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR W AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S OVER THE INTERIOR E. THANKFULLY...WIND GUSTS WILL BE
LESS THAN 20MPH SO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE CRITICAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

NAM SHOWS TWO 500 MB TROUGHS WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND THE NORTHERN ONE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z SUN. THE
SOUTHERN TROUGH GETS ABSORBED INTO THE NORTHERN TROUGH WHICH HELPS
TO SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHERE A
500 MB LOW MOVES INTO LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT. NAM SHOWS SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING IN SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A DRY SLOT MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA AND HAVE LOWEST POPS THERE. DID REMOVE SNOW
FROM FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS LOOKED TOO WARM FOR IT TO OCCUR WITH
SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN A BIT AND COLDER AIR LAGGING...BUT KEPT IT IN
FOR MON NIGHT. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH AND CLOSED 500
MB LOW AFFECTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. THE TROUGH MOVES
SLOWLY EAST 12Z WED...BUT STILL AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WED
INTO FRI. THIS WILL MEAN COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. WILL HAVE A
RAIN/SNOW POSSIBILITY FOR POPS FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MINIMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

SOME GUSTY N WINDS FOLLOWING A COLD FROPA WL DIMINISH BY SUNRISE
WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF HI PRES/WEAKER PRES GRADIENT. DRY LLVL AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HI WL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES
THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

PREVAILING CONDITION OVER LK SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE WINDS 25 KTS OR LESS. THERE WILL
BE SOME EXCEPTIONS THOUGH. FIRST...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A FRONT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR. DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN SO QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE MAY EVEN BE
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR. WAVES IN ICE FREE AREAS
WILL GET CHOPPY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO 20 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER
FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR DULUTH AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES
SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS ARE
THEN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF LK
SUPERIOR AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.