Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 222338
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
738 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW CLOSED UPR LO/
POCKET OF H5 TEMPS NEAR -30C CENTERED OVER ONTARIO TO THE SW OF
JAMES BAY DOWNSTREAM OF HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. DEEP
MOIST CYC NW FLOW ARND THE CLOSED LO CONTINUES TO IMPACT UPR MI...
DRAWING UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR /H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -12 TO -14C THAT
ARE SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR LES/ INTO THE AREA. THE RESULT HAS BEEN
NMRS SN SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN EXACERBATED OVER LAND WITH DAYTIME
HEATING EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF SGNFT LARGER SCALE FORCING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/SN AMOUNTS
ESPECIALLY TNGT AS UPR LO DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE E. TEMPS WL REMAIN
BLO NORMAL THRU THU.

TNGT...UPR LO IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE E...ALLOWING FOR SLOWLY
RISING H5 HGT/WEAKENING LLVL CYC FLOW. ALTHOUGH SOME GENERAL LARGER
SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS FCST TO DOMINATE...H85 TEMPS REMAINING AS LO AS
ABOUT -13C IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME LINGERNING DEEP MSTR/NOCTURNAL
COOLING WL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN LES IN THE FAVORED NW WIND SN
BELTS OVER THE ERN CWA. EXPECT UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SN ACCUM IN
THIS AREA. OVER THE W...WARMING H85 TEMPS TO ARND -10C/ LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVRN UNDER THE GREATER HGT RISES SHOULD TEND TO CAUSE
THE SN SHOWERS TO DIMINISH IN THAT AREA. HOWEVER...THE PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE NW FLOW AND LINGERING UPSLOPE FLOW WL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
SOME SCT SN SHOWERS EVEN IN THAT AREA.

THU...PERSISTENT HGT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE/TENDENCY FOR THE LLVL FLOW
TO BECOME MORE ACYC AS WELL AS SOME LLVL DRYING IN THE PRESENCE OF
DAYTIME HEATING WL DIMINISH THE SN SHOWERS W-E. FCST SDNGS INDICATE
THERE WL BE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTN AS WELL WITH HI PRES RDG FCST
TO BLD INTO THE WRN CWA LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO
THE 40S OVER THE INTERIOR W AND SCENTRAL AWAY FM LK MODERATION WITH
H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO REACH NEAR -6C ALONG THE WI BORDER BY 00Z FRI.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

EVEN AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE W THU NIGHT...ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE NIGHT IN NW WIND SNOWBELTS NEAR ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -10C UNDER NW
WINDS. BY FRI MORNING...THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND
THE WARNING AIRMASS OVERHEAD WILL MAKE FOR A DRY DAY ACROSS THE U.P.
/RULING AT THE 12Z/22 GFS AS AN OUTLIER WITH THE LIGHT PRECIP OVER
THE FAR W/. CLEARING SKIES FROM W TO E THU NIGHT INTO FRI WILL LEAD
TO MIN TEMPS THU NIGHT IN THE TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR W AND IN THE
20S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON FRI WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NEAR
CENTRAL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE WI BORDER.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY...SUNNIER AND WARMER AS A SFC LOW SLIDES WELL
S OF THE CWA WITH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE CWA.
850MB TEMPS HOVERING AROUND 0C SAT AND SUN COMBINED WITH THE PARTLY
CLOUDS SKIES WILL MAKE FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S...COOLEST
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER AND E OF THE KEWEENAW DUE TO E-NE FLOW OFF
THE LAKE. THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW AND MORE LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL
ALLOW MIN TEMPS SAT AND SUN NIGHTS TO BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND TO
LOW 30S ELSEWHERE.

MON ALSO LOOKS FREE OF PRECIP AS RIDGING WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
OVERHEAD. THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE
REGION MAY RETROGRADE BACK TOWARD THE AREA AFTER SITTING OVER NEW
ENGLAND...BUT THAT WOULD ONLY LEAD TO LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE E IF
THAT DID OCCUR...BUT WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
850MB TEMPS INCREASE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MON...BUT TEMPS SHOULD
BE SIMILAR TO SUN AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE INCREASED.

NOT REAL CONFIDENT FOR TUE AND WED AS MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF RUN
TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DISCONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT MAY BE STARTING. PRECIP CHANCES ARE
GREATER THAN FRI-MON...BUT NOT HIGH BY ANY MEANS. TEMPS ON TUE LOOK
TO BE SIMILAR TO TUE...BUT MAY COOL DOWN A BIT ON WED. JUST USED A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

EXPECT PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH COLD...MOIST NW FLOW OF AIR
AROUND DEEP LOW PRES IN SE CANADA THROUGH TONIGHT. UNDER THE HEAVIER
SHSN...CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY BE REDUCED INTO THE IFR
RANGE. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THU WITH THE CLOSER
APPROACH OF SFC HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR UNDER LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

A FEW NW WINDS GUSTING TO 30 TO NEAR 35KT GALES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVER N AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
JAMES BAY WILL FILL LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE TROUGH ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM THE JAMES BAY LOW...WILL
SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...EXTENDING FROM STRONG HIGH OVER FAR NORTHERN
CANADA AND GREENLAND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS



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