Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 251948
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
348 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM W HUDSON BAY AND
N CANADA WILL SHIFT ITS AXIS WESTWARD TONIGHT TO W ONTARIO AND
MN...BEFORE SLOWLY BUILDING BACK OVERHEAD SUNDAY. UNDER A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PW VALUES NEAR 0.25-0.3IN OVER THE W
HALF...WILL LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY IN THE TRADITIONAL COOL SPOTS.

AT 500MB...COINCIDING WITH THE RETROGRADING SFC RIDGE...WE/LL SEE
THE 500MB LOW SET UP ACROSS THE ME COAST SINK THE E-W ORIENTED
TROUGH SET UP THROUGH CENTRAL ONTARIO DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE CLOUD
COVER...AS THE THICK CLOUDS TO THE NE NEAR. THE INITIAL QUICKLY
ADVANCING MVFR CEILINGS ARE MOVING SSW AROUND 16KTS. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE SSE PROGRESSION...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME
OF THOSE CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE AND INTO THE N CENTRAL/E CWA
OVERNIGHT. ASSISTED BY UPSLOPE N WINDS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE
LOWER CLOUDS WILL BE FROM BARAGA THROUGH MQT AND ALGER COUNTIES.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THIS POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...DAYTIME
MIXING SHOULD LIFT/MIX OUT THE CLOUDS BACK TO SCATTERED OR
BORDERLINE BROKEN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LOOK FOR A
TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE THICK CLOUDS AS MORE NEAR FROM ONTARIO.
HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY..AND POSSIBLY A BIT COOLER TOMORROW
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR GIVEN THE STEADY N WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. WILL STILL HAVE TOUGH TIME BREAKING FREE OF THE COOLER
TEMPERATURE REGIME THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA RECENTLY...ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BEST CHANCE FOR TEMPS TO REACH ABOVE NORMAL WILL
BE WELL INLAND OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. WARMEST DAYS WILL BE TUE
THEN AT TAIL END OF THE LONG TERM ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOOKING
AHEAD FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEKEND OF MAY...WEATHER REGIME AT LEAST
BRIEFLY MAY TURN A BIT SUMMERY WITH TEMPS AT LEAST WELL INTO THE
70S. MAY EVEN BE DEALING WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND OVER
THE REGION...THOUGH LACK OF MODEL CONSISTENCY ON WHERE LARGER SCALE
FEATURES WILL BE LOCATED MAKES IT WAY TOO EARLY TO KEY IN ON THOSE
TYPE OF DETAILS.

STARTING OFF THE LONG TERM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WILL BE ON WESTERN EDGE OF UPPER LOW OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. NORTH WINDS TIED
TO THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR LK SUPERIOR SHORELINE IN THE 40S.
WELL INLAND DEEPER MIXING WITH HIGH OVERHEAD SHOULD SUPPORT TEMPS
RISING TOWARD 60 DEGREES. GOOD AGREEMENT FM NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF THAT
SCT-BKN OR EVEN OVC SKIES AT TIMES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BLO H85 ROTATES ACROSS REGION ON
WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW. A LOT OF LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM SUPPORTS
THE MOISTURE FORECASTS FM THE MODELS. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY
NIGHT. MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEAST FM MANITOBA AND
NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS COUPLE RUNS OF
THE ECMWF WERE STRONGER WITH FEATURE AND EVEN INDICATED SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE TROUGH WHICH STALLED SFC FRONT OVER THE
REGION AND FOCUSED CHANCES OF RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GFS AND GEM-NH FOR DIFFERENT REASONS DRY OUT THE FRONT BY
TIME IT MAKES IT OVER CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...QUICKEST ON THE
GFS. LATEST ECMWF NOT AS STRONG WITH THE WAVE AND SHOWS MINIMAL QPF.
LACK OF MODEL CONSISTENCY SO WILL KEEP WITH SLIGHT CHANCES IN
FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK IN FM HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. EXPECT
THE HIGH TO REMAIN IN PLACE ON THURSDAY...WITH LAKE BREEZES KEEPING
GREAT LAKES SHORELINES COOLER. 00Z ECMWF RUN BULLISH IN BRINGING
SHORTWAVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MANITOBA AND JUST
NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. RESULT IS ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG SFC TROUGH TO BRING QPF OVER UPR MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. NO CONSISTENCY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS ECMWF RUNS
THOUGH AND THE 12Z RUN EITHER. ALL THE WHILE...GFS AND GEM-NH REMAIN
DRY. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY ATTM INTO FRIDAY. AS LONG AS CLOUDS ARE
NOT BIG CONCERN FRIDAY...TEMPS SHOULD BOUNCE UP INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70...THOUGH IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR GREAT LAKES WITH LAKE
BREEZES AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL LIGHT.

INTO SATURDAY...AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER NORTHWEST CONUS...UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS FM THE PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
SO LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MORE WESTERLY OR MAYBE SW OVER UPR
MICHIGAN. GIVEN H85 TEMPS FM BOTH GFS AND ECMWF RISING ABOVE +10C ON
SATURDAY...SHOULD SEE TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 70S. WILL KEEP TEMPS
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY THOUGH AS THERE INDICATIONS COULD SEE CLOUDS OR
SHRA ALONG AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC TROUGH OR MAYBE IN A
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY /00Z ECMWF WAS
FAVORING THAT IDEA/. IN ANY CASE...CONSISTENCY IN ANY ONE SOLUTION
IS POOR...EITHER FROM MODEL TO MODEL OR RUN TO RUN WITHIN JUST ONE
MODEL. USED CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY UNTIL DETAILS
CAN BE BETTER PINNED DOWN.

QUICK FIRE WX NOTE...LOWERED DWPNTS MOST AFTNS AND EARLY EVENINGS
UNTIL FRIDAY. BASICALLY WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE THINK THAT
AFTN DWPNTS WILL AT LEAST RETURN TO VALUES SEEN EARLIER IN THE
MORNINGS ON THOSE DAYS. RESULT IS RH VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 30 PCT
EACH OF THESE DAYS OVER THE INTERIOR. COULD SEE THESE LOWERING
FURTHER AS FORECAST IS REFINED FURTHER. WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK LOOK
GENERALLY LIGHT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VCNTY SO FIRE WX
CONCERNS SHOULD BE ON THE LOWER SIDE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH LATER THIS
WEEK IF GUSTY WINDS CAN SET UP AHEAD OF ANY TROUGHS...THOUGH AS
ALLUDED TO ALREADY...THE CONSISTENCY/CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION/TIMING
OF SAID SFC FEATURES IS POOR RIGHT NOW. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH VFR
CEILINGS/VIS...A DISTURBANCE SWINGING IN FROM ONTARIO OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING MAY BRING MVFR CEILINGS TO MAINLY SAW BY DAYBREAK.
THERE IS EVEN A SMALLER POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT CMX...BUT
OPTED FOR JUST SCT CLOUDS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE LOWER PROBABILITY.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR DIURNAL WINDS TO STAY AROUND 10KTS OR LESS
DURING THE DAY AND GO NEARLY CALM AT NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE LINGERING NE FLOW OVER FAR W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP SOME GUSTS
OF 20-30KTS THERE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING
TO 25KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL STRENGTHEN AND FOCUS JUST TO THE WEST
/ACROSS W ONTARIO AND MN/ SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE
RIDGE WILL THEN AGAIN SLIDE MORE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING INTO W
ONTARIO AND MN TUESDAY MORNING WILL BRIEFLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK
WEEK...EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND CROSSING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM WEDNESDAY
ON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF


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