Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KMQT 162033
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
433 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
COLD FRONT HAVE RESULTED IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MN
ARROWHEAD. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVE E INTO THE
DRY AIRMASS OVER THE CWA. THE EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
BE PROHIBITIVE TO PRECIP MAKING IT TO THE GROUND OVER UPPER MI...SO
WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING. SFC RH VALUES AS LOW AS THE
MID TEENS ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE INTERIOR W.

TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP SFC
TEMPS WARMER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S E TO THE LOW 40S
ELSEWHERE.

EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON FRI AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD. AMPLE MIXING WILL MAKE FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S TO AROUND
70 OVER THE CENTRAL AND W TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S E. MIN RH
VALUES WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE MID TEENS...BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN CHECK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FRI NIGHT...MODELS WERE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE STRONGER 700-300
QVECTOR CONV WITH A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
SO...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

SAT...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING
PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA. MIXING TO AROUND K FT IN THE DRY AIRMASS
WITH PWAT VALUES AOB 0.25 INCH SHOULD DROP DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 20F AND
MIN RH VALUES INTO THE 20-25 PCT RANGE. HOWEVER...LIGHT EAST WINDS
BELOW 10 MPH WILL HELP LIMIT FIRE WX POTENTIAL.

SAT NIGHT...SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND A SFC TROUGH INTO WRN MN BY 12Z/SUN WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR. 300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH 40-45 KNOT 850 MB
WINDS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TOWARD THE WRN CWA BY LATE SAT NIGHT.

SUN AND SUN NIGHT...MODELS WERE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE STRONGEST AREA OF MOISTURE ADVECTION (PWAT OVER 1 INCH) AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
UPPER MI LATE SUN THROUGH SUN EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO
MN AND A SFC TROUGH APPROACHES FRO THE SSW. THE PCPN WILL LIKELY BE
ENHANCED BY HARDER TO TIME SHORTWAVES EMERGING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS.
THE RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD MON MORNING...PER MODEL TRENDS.

MON...COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE REGION AS THE MID LEVEL LOW
ONLY SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD NW LAKE SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH THE DRY SLOT
SPREADING OVER THE AREA WILL MINIMIZE ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN...DIURNAL
HEATING WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME SCT LIGHT RA/SN.

TUE-THU...LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW IS FCST TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE
NRN LAKES THROUGH WED NIGHT. COLD AIR ALOFT/SPRING DAYTIME HEATING
AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA WITHIN THE
LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION FAVORS AT LEAST SCT SHOWERY PCPN
BOTH DAYS....MOSTLY IN FORM OF SNOW BUT MIXING WITH RAIN AS WELL
DURING PEAK HEATING. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOON INLAND
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING WILL BE BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS
SHOULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST S
CNTRL. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE AROUND EARLY THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

NO WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK. BY SUNDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES...SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY MONDAY WHILE MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW LIFTING IN FM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. EXPECT WEST WINDS UP TO 25 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.