Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 300534
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
134 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015

...QUIET AND COOL...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

REGIONAL PATTERN: EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL-
DEFINED SHORTWAVE DROPPING OVERHEAD AS IT SINKS ALMOST DUE SOUTH
THROUGH THE STATE OF MICHIGAN ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF SHARP RIDGE
EAST OF THE ROCKIES.  AT THE SURFACE...THIS SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED
WEST OF A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION...WITH UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN HUDSON BAY. THIS LATTER FEATURE IS GRADUALLY
SETTLING SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  NO HIGH IMPACT WEATHER THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS CENTERING AROUND
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWER EVOLUTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOW
OVERHEAD...AND GRADUALLY DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.

THROUGH THIS EVENING: DIURNALLY ENHANCED STRATOCUMULUS DECK
CONTINUES TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.P. BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
THINNING...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE DAYTIME
HEATING.  CORE OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTH...WITH ADDITIONAL MID CLOUDS ARRIVING THROUGH THE EVENING. ALL-
IN-ALL EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ONGOING
10-20 MPH NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKENING. TEMPS WILL BE
COOL...FALLING THROUGH THE 40S.

TONIGHT: UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA.  BAND OF
DEEPEST MOISTURE ARRIVES OVER EASTERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THIS
AREA IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF
LAKE SUPERIOR.  AS THIS MOVES SOUTH...I DO EXPECT THAT IT WILL
WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ARE POSSIBLE /AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION/.

MUCH MORE LIKELY WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LLEVEL CLOUDINESS /NOW
BEGINNING TO CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/ THAT WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KEEWENAW...WITH THIS MOISTURE STRUGGLING
TO FULLY CLOUD THINGS UP TO THE WEST.

WINDS: MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH.  EXPECT 10-
20KTS OVER THE WATERS...WITH WINDS INLAND DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN
10MPH OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES:  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MENTIONED ABOVE.  EXPECT AREAS EAST OF THE
KEEWENAW TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S UNDER THICKER
CLOUDS...WITH SOME BREAKS ALLOWING LOWS TO FALL TO NEAR 30 FURTHER
WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015

...MODERATING TEMPERATURES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASINGLY DRY/MILD CONDITIONS SUGGEST SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR SATURDAY AND PERHAPS SUNDAY.

PATTERN/FORECAST: EASTERN NOAM TROUGH TO START THE PERIOD WILL GIVE
WAY TO AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN AS SUBSTANTIAL EASTERN
PACIFIC JET HELPS BRING A MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE DOWNSTREAM
FLOW.  FIRST AND FOREMOST...THIS PROMISES A MODERATING TEMPERATURE
TREND WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  SECOND...WITH THE JET STREAM RETREATING NORTH TO A POSITION
CLOSE TO THE US / CANADIAN BORDER...WE/LL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A FEW
FRONTAL PASSAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS SOLID THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BEYOND THIS POINT REGARDING THE
STRENGTH/POSITION OF EASTERN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE...WITH THE 06Z
GFS MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN A MUCH
DRIER/COOLER END TO THE FORECAST PERIOD THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH
REMAINS MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.  WITH THE 12Z GFS
HAVING A MUCH LARGER RESEMBLANCE TO THE 00/12Z ECMWF...WILL USE THIS
COMPROMISE AS A STARTING POINT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

WEATHER:

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY WILL BRING DRYING
TO THE COLUMN...ENDING ANY SHOWER THREAT FROM THE OVERNIGHT.
TRAPPED LLEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER...WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDINESS ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE WE SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.  AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THIS FEATURE WILL
BE RUNNING INTO A DRY LLEVEL AIRMASS AS IT ENCOUNTERS SHARP
DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT.  WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT...EXPECT THAT ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE SIGNIFICANT
FROM WEST TO EAST.  THUS...WILL CONTINUE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION.

GENERALLY QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MODEST RIDGING THROUGH THE
COLUMN OVERHEAD. LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING CANADIAN
SHORTWAVE.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE PLUME
/PWATS NEARING ONE INCH/ INTERACTS WITH A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
JET MAX ALOFT RESIDING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. PATTERN HAS A
MORE SUMMER-TIME LOOK TO IT...WITH STRONGEST FORCING PASSING NORTH
OF THE REGION.  HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS A GOOD BIT STRONGER
THAN THAT ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WITH BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE...WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POP MENTION BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY /ACTUAL PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION DOES LOOK TO BE
SHORTER THAN THIS/.  SOME THUNDER MENTION IS WARRANTED AS
INSTABILITY PLUME MAKES A RUN AT THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.

THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION TO END THIS FORECAST PERIOD
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING.

TEMPERATURES: SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND IN PLACE THROUGH THIS PERIOD
WITH T8S JUST ABOVE 0C TO START THE PERIOD THURSDAY...REACHING 5-8C
BY SATURDAY...AND THEN 10-12C AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
LATE SUNDAY. THUS...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY REACH THE MID 50S
THURSDAY...BEFORE REACHING INTO THE 60S FRIDAY AND THEN REACHING
INTO THE 70S /ESPECIALLY WEST/ ON SUNDAY.  FOR NEXT WEEK...THERE
WILL BE SOME DEGREE OF COOLING BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...WITH THE
GFS CURRENTLY MUCH COOLER THAN THE ECMWF/GGEM AS WELL AS A GOOD
NUMBER OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.  THUS...WILL TAKE TEMPS BACK
INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S...STILL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...WHICH
AGREES WITH THE OVERALL MORE ZONAL SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN. THE
TYPICAL CAVEAT WITH ALL OF THESE READINGS WILL BE MUCH COOLER VALUES
IN AREAS OF LAKE INFLUENCE....WITH PERHAPS THE LEAST AMOUNT OF THIS
ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015

AT KIWD AND KCMX...THESE WESTERN SITES WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT KCMX COULD SEE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY...BUT GREATEST POTENTIAL IS FOR VFR.

AT KSAW...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE N-NNE FLOW WILL BRING
LOWERING CONDITIONS TONIGHT BEFORE SLOW IMPROVEMENT THURSDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. MORE RAPID IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE W SHIFTS
E ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS AROUND 12Z...BUT
THE WINDOW FOR OCCURRENCE IS BRIEF AND NOT CERTAIN.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NEAR SCA LEVEL
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
THROUGH FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHENING /ALTHOUGH LIKELY REMAINING BELOW SCA
LEVELS/ SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ARNOTT/APX
LONG TERM...ARNOTT/APX
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...ARNOTT/APX



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