Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 280707
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
307 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO SRN JAMES BAY. TO THE E...A MID
LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST EXTENDS BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND WRAPS SOME MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE UPPER LAKES. AS OF 19Z...W EDGE OF THE STRATOCU DECK
FM THIS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW RUNS FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE FAR
ERN COUNTIES OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED INTO CENTRAL UPPER
MI THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH THE MID-LVL AND SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR EXCEPT
PARTLY CLOUDY EAST WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRES TROUGH AT
LEAST INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL MAXIMIZED DUE TO CALM WINDS UNDER AXIS OF SFC RIDGE AND PWATS
OF .25 INCH OR LESS. ELSEWHERE MIN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NRN
PLAINS BUT SHOW BEST Q-VECT CONV AND MID-LVL MOISTURE ASSOC WITH
SHORTWAVE GENERALLY LIFTING NORTH AND WEST OF UPPER MI. MODELS HINT
THAT PERHAPS THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA COULD SEE SOME
SPRINKLES/-SHRA TUE EVENING. BUT GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR MASS
ALREADY IN PLACE WL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST THROUGH 00Z WED BUT
REFLECT EXPECTED INCREASE IN MID-LVL CLOUDS ALONG WEAK COLD-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN GRIDS. HIGH TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST COULD REACH
INTO THE MID 60S...BUT DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS UNDER
WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER (IN THE 50S) ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES AND EAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN HARD TO COME BY IN THE LONG TERM AS THE
AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SFC RIDGE AT LEAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK.

AN UPPER WAVE WILL TRANSIT THE CENTRAL OR ERN CWA WED INTO WED
NIGHT...BUT WILL BE LACKING MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN E AND POSSIBLY SOME SPRINKLES OVER
THE NCENTRAL (AIDED BY UPSLOPE FORCING) WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE NAM
SHOWS THE MOST QPF BUT IT IS ALSO STRONGEST WITH THE WAVE AND HAS
BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY OVERDOING LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE LATELY. N WINDS
OF 10-15MPH GUSTING TO 20MPH WILL KEEP LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE
LOCATIONS COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 40S. INLAND HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 50S.

SFC RIDGING TAKES MOVES SQUARELY BACK OVER THE CWA ON THU BEFORE
MOVING OUT ON FRI EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THU WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPS TO WED AS N-NE FLOW CONTINUES...BUT SW-W
FLOW AND AN OVERALL MUCH WARMER AIRMASS ON FRI WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 50S E AND THE 60S W. THANKFULLY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
ON FRI...WHICH WILL HELP OFFSET FIRE RISK AS RH VALUES DROP INTO THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR
W LATE FRI AS DYING SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARD THE CWA WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE CWA SAT THROUGH
MON...BUT PRECIP POTENTIAL ON SAT LOOKS LOW. FOR SUN AND
MON...BETTER MOISTURE ALONG WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND
BETTER WAA FORCING WILL MAKE FOR BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. EXACT
AMOUNTS/TIMING IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS HARD TO PIN
DOWN AT THAT TIME RANGE. DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 70S
IN SOME SPOTS SAT INTO MON...BUT THAT IS ALSO DEPENDENT ON SHORTWAVE
TRACK/PRECIP/CLOUD COVER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH DAYTIME
LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DOMINATING WINDS AND WIND DIRECTIONS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS E ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL FALL OFF TO MOSTLY UNDER 10KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. ON
TUE...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW
PRES TROF THAT PASSES TUE NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...ANOTHER HIGH PRES
WILL RIDGE S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED/THU. AS
THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO THE UPPER LAKES WED...WINDS OVER ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY GUST TO NEAR 20KT ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER OVER THE W. WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES
THU INTO SAT...WIND SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER 15KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS



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