Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 191734
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
134 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB LOW OVER EASTERN CO THIS
MORNING IN AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. BOTH TROUGHS HEAD SLOWLY EAST WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE GETTING
ABSORBED INTO THE NORTHERN ONE TONIGHT WHILE THE NORTHERN TROUGH
ONLY MAKES IT TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT.

NAM TAKES SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AND MOVES IT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TODAY WHILE KEEPING THE EAST
HALF DRY BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
MOVES IN TONIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. THE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC
SURFACES OF I290K FOR THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE STORY WITH DRY
SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVENTING THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF PCPN FOR TODAY
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AND WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.
MODELS WERE HINTING AT THIS YESTERDAY WITH DRYING THE EAST OUT AND
WILL GO WITH THIS SCENARIO TODAY AND CONFINE POPS TO THE WEST HALF
OF THE CWA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE FAR WEST. LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE A SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES IN AND AFFECTS MAINLY THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT AND WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS THERE WITH LIKELY
POPS IN THE WEST HALF. SOME OF THE COMPUTER MODELS WERE PUTTING OUT
SOME QPF THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT WILL
GO WITH A DRY AIR SCENARIO PREVENTING ANYTHING FROM HITTING THE
GROUND AND AT MOST WILL SEE VIRGA IF EVEN THAT OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. LOOKED TOO WARM FOR SNOW AND KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT AS TRANSITION AND COLD AIR ARRIVE MON MORNING.
OVERALL...SLOWED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF POPS DOWN AND KEPT
TEMPERATURES PRETTY MUCH THE SAME AS SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE NOT A REAL
WARM WIND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

COOLER WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE THEME FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD. THIS WILL BE AS THE SFC LOW SET UP ACROSS N LOWER MI AT 12Z
MONDAY /WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHED UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
AND SW ONTARIO/. THE SFC LOW WILL EJECT NE OVER E ONTARIO BY
00Z...CONTINUING THE EXIT OF THE MORE STEADY RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE SFC LOW WILL NOT MOVE MUCH...BUT WILL EXTEND A
SFC TROUGH/SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W THIRD OF THE CWA. THIS
WILL BE TIMED OUT WELL WITH THE 500MB LOW NEARING THE AREA...AND
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -7C. THE RESULT WILL BE AN ENHANCED
AREA OF PRECIP OVER THE W THIRD OF UPPER MI TUESDAY MORNING. A QUICK
BURST OF LESS THAN 2IN OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED. WITH TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING OUT AROUND FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...THE
BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ON GRASSY SURFACES.

MID 30S TO MID 40S WILL BE COMMON THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES S CENTRAL. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF AT LEAST
A MENTION OF PRECIP THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE SFC LOW LINGERS ALONG
THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE SHIFTING TO MAINLY S QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
BROAD 500MB LOW OVERHEAD TUESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WILL MOVE TO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT KEEP
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES ROLLING IN ON THE NW FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF DO NOT HAVE 850MB TEMPS WARMING ABOVE -
7C FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD WILL SEE SFC TEMPS OF 10 TO 15F BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE TWO
SEPARATE FEATURES BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND RAPIDLY LOWERING
CEILINGS TO THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY. LINGERING LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO MID CLOUDS AND MAYBE AN
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN QUESTION MARK FOR THE
FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF THE RAIN AND IN TURN LOWER
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.

AT KIWD...MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS KEEPING THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE WEST OF THE SITE THROUGH THE EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION...BUT
HAVE KEPT THE IDEA OF THE SHOWERS BRUSHING THE SITE BY MID EVENING
AND THEN SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE SITE TONIGHT. EXPECT THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS TO TURN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND WITH RAIN OVER THE COLD
WATER WOULD EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO AFFECT THE SITE OVERNIGHT.
THE RAIN COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE
ENDING TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

AT KCMX/KSAW...BOTH SITES STAY IN THE DRIER AIR LONGER BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION QUICKLY DETERIORATES BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
(AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS 09Z). WITH BOTH SITES EXPERIENCING
FAVORABLE WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
LIFR CEILINGS AND SOME FOG TO OCCUR. THOSE IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

AS A LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AND WOULD EXPECT WINDS UP TO 30 KTS OVER THE EAST HALF
OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THE LOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMES BAY MONDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS TO BE IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...07


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