Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 310907
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
507 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW ONTARIO (NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR) SUPPORTED
MAINLY LIGHT PCPN. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV
WAS LOCATED NORTH OF KINL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER UPPER WAS GIVING
WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRES SYSTEM.

TODAY...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHRTWV WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES TODAY BRINGING AREAS OF PCPN TO THE CWA. THE
SFC LOW TRACK IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI. AFTER TEMPS
REBOUND QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...EXPECT ENOUGH WARMING AHEAD OF THE
LOW FOR MAINLY RAIN OVER THE WEST...PER NAM FCST WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS. THE GREATEST CHANCES/COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST DPVA/QVECTOR
CONV. SNOWFALL ARRIVING AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH AT
LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN ON
WED...WITH A SFC-850MB TROUGH MOVING TO JUST W OF THE CWA BY 00Z
THU...WELL E OF THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM. MODELS SHOW VARYING MAGNITUDES
OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...BUT PREFER THE DRIER OPTIONS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DRY LOW-
MID LEVEL AIR. THE TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
BETWEEN 00Z AND 18Z THU. RAIN WILL BE LARGELY TIED TO THE
TROUGH...BUT WITH IT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND
CONVECTION TO THE S AND SW OF THE AREA...AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON
PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER THE W. AS THE TROUGH CATCHES UP WITH THE BETTER
WAA OVER ERN UPPER MI WED EVENING/NIGHT WILL SHOW INCREASES POPS/QPF
GIVEN BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THUNDER CHANCES
ALONG THE WI BORDER ON WED EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES WED
NIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING FADES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS WITH SLY WINDS OVER WRN
UPPER MI. ERN AND MAYBE EVEN CENTRAL UPPER MI WILL BE DOWNWIND OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND...THEREFORE...WILL BE MORE STABLE AND COOLER DURING
THE DAY. HAVE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE WRN U.P.
AND FROM THE UPPER 30S TO 40S OVER THE CENTRAL AND E DOWNWIND OF
LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN ON THU...LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST BEHIND
THE TROUGH. MODELS SUGGEST MIXING AS HIGH AS 700MB...WHICH WOULD TAP
INTO SOME DRY AIR AND BRING SFC DEW POINTS DOWN. ALSO...IT WILL BE
BREEZY OUT OF THE W...WHICH WILL HELP EVEN ERN UPPER MI SEE WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST
SCENTRAL. FORTUNATELY...STILL HAVE DECENT SNOW COVER OVER MUCH OF
THE U.P. AS THIS PATTERN IS ONE OF THE CLASSIC FIRE WEATHER DAYS
FROM PAST U.P. FIRES.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE FROM THE WED SYSTEM MOVES OVER THU
EVENING/NIGHT...BRINGING COLDER AIR /850MB TEMPS TO -12C/ AND ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AREAS
FAVORED BY NW WINDS. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE PRETTY UNCERTAIN...COULD
SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW THU EVENING/NIGHT.

FRI THROUGH MON LOOK BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE AS NW FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE MAY PASS OVERHEAD ON
SAT...LEADING TO SOME LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FRI THROUGH SUN. MODEL DO SHOW A SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE REGION ON MON/TUE...POSSIBLY PRODUCING PRECIP. GIVEN HIGH
LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY FRI THROUGH MON...WILL USE A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE STRATUS IFR CIGS AT CMX
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WITH VERY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL
RAOB ASSOCAITED WITH HI PRES NEAR ERN LK SUP...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREDOMINATE. A DISTURBANCE APRCHG FM THE NW TODAY WL MOVE OVER
UPR MI...BRINGING A BETTER CHC FOR SOME -SN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RA TO
MAINLY CMX AND SAW...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE SITES. SINCE LESS PCPN IS LIKELY TO FALL AT
IWD...FCST ONLY A MARGINAL MVFR CONDITION AT THAT SITE. EVEN AFTER
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...SOME LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT CMX
AND ESPECIALLY SAW...WHERE A LLVL UPSLOPE NNE WIND WL PREVAIL AHEAD
OF APRCHG HI PRES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07



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